If not Sabalenka or Gauff, who is favored? 3 takeaways from the 2025 Wimbledon women's draw

Is there a favorite in this year’s field, or are we destined for a fourth straight surprise champion?

Looking at tough roads ahead for Sabalenka and Gauff, and opportunities for Swiatek, Pegula, Paolini, and Keys

For the last three years, the headline coming into the women’s event at Wimbledon has been the same: Can Iga Swiatek extend her clay dominance to grass?

Now that she’s no longer dominant on clay, we need a new headline, and a new set of questions. Below you’ll find a couple that come to mind now that the Ladies’ draw has been made, and the tournament is set to begin.

DRAW: Sabalenka begins with Branstine, Gauff meets Yastremska

Is there a favorite?

Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff are the first choices here. They’re ranked and seeded No. 1 and No. 2, and they just played the final at Roland Garros. At the same time, neither has been at her best at Wimbledon in the past. They’re both 11-5 at the event, the lowest winning percentage for each of them at a major. Sabalenka has never made it past the semis, while Gauff has yet to get out of the fourth round.

Worse, neither has a smooth path this time. Sabalenka’s quarter includes Elina Svitolina, a two-time Wimbledon semifinalist; Madison Keys, who beat her at the Australian Open; former champ Marketa Vondrousova, who just beat her in Berlin; as well as Paula Badosa, Elise Mertens, Donna Vekic, and Emma Raducanu.

Gauff won’t be able to ease into her section, either. She’ll start with Dayana Yastremska, who swings hard, hits flat, and doesn’t give you much time to react. Also in her quarter are Victoria Azarenka, Sofia Kenin, Elena Rybakina, Clara Tauson, Marta Kostyuk, and—as a possible quarterfinal opponent—Swiatek.

Sabalenka has a slight advantage in terms of possible semifinal opponents: For her, they may be Jasmine Paolini or Zheng Qinwen; for Gauff, they may be Jessica Pegula or Mirra Andreeva.

If not Aryna or Coco, then who?

Wimbledon has been a box of surprises on the women’s side this decade: Rybakina, Vondrousova, and Barbora Krejcikova are the last three champions, and all came out of left field to do it. Judging by that history, you can probably say that 20 players have a legitimate chance to win in 2025.

I’ll start with someone who is known for surprise runs: 2024 finalist Jasmine Paolini. She’s not coming in after a Roland Garros runner-up performance, the way she did last year. And she just got clobbered by Swiatek on grass in Bad Homburg. But Paolini is still the fourth seed, which has put her in an enviable quarter, far away from the other big names. The second seed in her section is Zheng Qinwen, who lost in the first round at Wimbledon each of the last two years.

How about Swiatek herself? She’s also just 11-5 at Wimbledon, and has never made the semis. But I wonder if she’ll be helped by not being the favorite this time around. She’s in the final in Bad Homburg this weekend, and has looked a little more relaxed on grass, where she has much less to lose, than she did on clay this spring.

Other contenders:

Pegula: The No. 3 seed is in the Bad Homburg final against Swiatek, and may be happy to be back on her favored fast courts. She’s in a quarter with Mirra Andreeva, Emma Navarro, and Karolina Muchova.

Andreeva: On the one hand, she’s the No. 6 seed, and is in a quarter led by Pegula. On the other, she lost in the first round last year, and is 1-2 in her two grass tune-ups this year.

Rybakina: She won it all in 2022; this year she could meet Swiatek in the round of 16

Keys: A Wimbledon title has always seemed to be within reach for this free-swinger, but you never know when those swings will go awry. Her draw looks good until a Sabalenka quarterfinal.

Ostapenko: She just retired from a match with an injury, but she has been a semifinalist here, and she’s in the softer quarter led by Paolini and Zheng

What are the early matches to watch?

Krejcikova vs. Alexandra Eala: The teen Filipina will make her main-draw debut in Centre Court, against the defending champ

Vondrousova vs. McCartney Kessler: The 2023 Wimbledon champion just won a title on grass in Berlin, while the American just won one in Nottingham

Paula Badosa vs. Katie Boulter

Paolini vs. Anastasija Sevastova

Amanda Anisimova vs. Yulia Putintseva

Navarro vs. Petra Kvitova: The two-time champ is saying good-bye at her favorite event

Belinda Bencic vs. Alycia Parks

Sofia Kenin vs. Taylor Townsend

Gauff vs. Yastremska

Potential second-rounder to watch: Zheng vs. Naomi Osaka