Run of the year?! Wild card Victoria Mboko wins first WTA title over Naomi Osaka in magical Montreal finish

By all rights—or at least all hopes—this should be a rivalry. Swiatek is No. 1, Pegula is No. 4. They play contrasting games—Iga explosive, Jess steady—that could, ideally, mesh to produce long, varied, dynamic rallies.

So far, though, the matches and the rallies have mostly been one-way traffic. Swiatek is 5-2 against Pegula, and the last time they faced off, in the Doha final in February, she blitzed her way to a 6-3, 6-0 win. But Pegula has made a few inroads over the last 12 months. She pushed Swiatek to a second-set tiebreaker at the US Open, she won a set from her in San Diego, and she beat her in the United Cup to start the 2023 season.

These two obviously know each other well, and each is coming off an imperfect but still impressive three-set win on Friday: Pegula over Coco Gauff, Swiatek over Danielle Collins. This should be Pegula’s time of the year to shine, but I still won’t bet against Swiatek when she’s in decent form. Winner: Swiatek

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Swiatek became the first player on either tour to reach 50 wins this year with her victory Friday.

Elena Rybakina vs. Liudmila Samsonova

The second semifinal in Montreal will be the battle of the tall, Russian-born, 24-year-old blondes. Rybakina is higher ranked, and has won more significant tournaments, but Samsonova has won both of their head-to-head matches.

The question for their third meeting may be who—if anyone—is less tired than the other. Rybakina played for three and a half hours, until 2:56 A.M., in an epic tug-of-war quarterfinal win over Daria Kasatkina. Samsonova, meanwhile, beat Aryna Sabalenka and Belinda Bencic all in one day, over five sets total. From both a game and a mentality perspective, Samsonova has been looking more and more ready for this type of moment. Winner: Samsonova

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TORONTO

Alex de Minaur vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

No. 18 vs. No. 37 in a Masters 1000 semifinal is a bit of a surprise. When the tournament started, this semifinal was supposed to pit No. 2 seed Daniil Medvedev vs. No. 3 Casper Ruud. But then Davidovich Fokina squeaked past Ruud 7-6 in the third set, and De Minaur snuck by Medvedev in two tight sets. Sometimes surprises aren’t bad things. These guys are exciting athletes and full-throttle competitors. They’re both 24, and presumably know each other’s games dating back to their junior days. But they give off very different vibes. Where the Australian is ultra-focused, the Spaniard rides his up-and-down emotions.

They’ve played three times as pros, and Davidovich Fokina has won twice, most recently 7-5 in the third at Queen’s last year. This week, though, De Minaur, with wins over Medvedev, Taylor Fritz, and Cam Norrie, has looked especially good. He’s also the higher-ranked player, and hard courts suit his game. Winner: De Minaur

A trip to the final would enable De Minaur to better his career-high ranking of No. 15, which he's matched with his run thus far.

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Jannik Sinner vs. Tommy Paul

With his win over Carlos Alcaraz on Friday night, Paul dashed the hopes of all those who wanted to see the next installment of Sinneraz (or is that Janitos?). That is, a semifinal between budding rivals Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, who never fail to spark off some pyrotechnics when they play.

But Paul vs. Sinner isn’t a bad matchup, either. They’ve played twice; the Italian won on clay and the American on grass, and both matches went three sets. They both love to leap around and pummel the ball, but they have different strengths. Sinner is a hitter, and Paul is a runner, a combination that should make for blistering rallies that have both guys scrambling at top speed for most of the evening. Each is coming off a three-set quarterfinal win, but each is young enough to bounce back without too much trouble. Sinner is ranked eighth and Paul 14th, and so far it has been Sinner who has had the higher shot-making ceiling. Winner: Sinner