Seeing is Believing

If the French Open women’s singles winner comes out of the bottom half of the draw, you know what that means: We’ll have a first-time Grand Slam singles champion. Grand Slam winner Francesca Schiavone… like the sound of that? Or maybe it rolls of your tongue more easily when you insert Caroline Wozniacki, Elena Dementieva or Nadia Petrova?

If Sally selling seashells by the seashore twists your tongue less than Jarmila winning a major by the Seine, I get it. Like I said in my French Open preview, the best way for a player to convince us she can win a big one is to win a big one. It’s like the Academy Awards. I didn’t believe Sandra Bullock could win an Oscar until she went out and won an Oscar. (I can’t say the same for Helen Mirren, who I’m convinced was born with a gold statuette in her hands.)

Of course Oscar winners have usually not won one before, while Grand Slam winners usually have. In fact it’s been two years since we’ve had a first-time winner, when Ana Ivanovic won the 2008 French Open. If I have my facts straight we’ve only had eight first-time winners this decade:

*Jennifer Capriati (2001 Australian Open)

*Justine Henin (2003 French Open)

*Anastasia Myskina (2004 French Open)

*Maria Sharapova (2004 Wimbledon)

*Svetlana Kuznetsova (2004 U.S. Open)

*Kim Clijsters (2005 U.S. Open)

*Amelie Mauresmo (2006 Australian Open)

*Ana Ivanovic (2008 French Open)

Two of the four quarterfinalists in the bottom half have been so close (yet so far). In 2004 Dementieva was a finalist at the French Open and the U.S. Open. In 2009 Wozniacki was a finalist at the US Open. Petrova’s been as far as the semifinals, twice at the French Open. Schiavone’s been as far as the quarterfinals, in all majors but the Australian Open.

Here’s more information (from the Sony Ericsson WTA Tour) on the quarterfinalists in the bottom half of the draw. The chart shows number of wins, number of losses and win percentage at the French Open coming in to this year’s tournament.

Why bother with all this, oddsmakers and many fans might say. They seem confident this year’s winner will come from the top half of the draw and the first quarter to be more precise. It’s where we find Serena Williams and Justine Henin, the two major winners left in the tournament. If they win their matches today though, they’ll meet in yet another quarterfinal. Which means that no more than one previous major winner can make the final to try and prevent a first-time winner once again. But maybe a Sam Stosur here or a Jelena Jankovic there can prevent them from getting there first? I guess we'll see.