Semifinal Saturday at the BJK Cup: Slovenia vs. Italy; Czech Republic vs. Canada 

The moment when a tennis event turns the corner from round-robin to single elimination reminds me of those early mornings when I’ve taken a long drive through California on that endless north-south strip of freeway known as Highway 5. The road is often foggy, akin to the structure and flow of a round-robin and its complicated blend of groups, tallies, scenarios and potential outcomes. Confession: I barely passed algebra.

Fortunately, sunshine eventually bursts on the highway. Simple arithmetic emerges at the tennis. Such is the case now at the Billie Jean King Cup. A week ago, 12 teams arrived in Seville, Spain to compete in four days of round-robin matches. All that ended Friday. Four squads now remain.

There’s a nice symmetry to the pairings. Each semifinal features a team that’s never won this event: Slovenia in one section, Canada in the other. But to reach the final, they’ll have to get past two nations with histories of frequent triumph. Slovenia will play four-time champion Italy. For Canada, the opponent is the Czech Republic, winner of eleven Billie Jean King Cup titles.

Slovenia vs. Italy

Slovenia is the least likely member of Saturday’s quartet. After all, when your two singles players each have triple-digit rankings, it’s hard to feel excessively confident. But on day one of the competition, world No. 104 Kaja Juvan and No. 100 Tamara Zidansek scored straight-set wins over a pair of Australian veterans, Ajla Tomljanovic and Daria Saville. Juvan on Thursday also beat Kazakhstan’s Anna Danilina. And though the Slovenian team lost that overall match to Kazakhstan, Slovenia had won enough total sets to break a tie and advance to the final four.

“I don't think any of us sort of dreamed of the semifinal,” said Juvan. “We were just trying to prepare ourselves. Both me and Tamara, we faced some difficulties in the last period with injuries and illness.”

Slovenia now takes on a battle-tested Italian team. A pair of rough three-setters on Wednesday versus France helped set the tone for this squad’s success. In the opener, lefty Martina Trevisan rallied to beat tennis’ eternal crafty campaigner, Alize Cornet, 2-6, 6-2, 6-2. Following that, Jasmine Paolini also went the distance, overcoming Caroline Garcia, 7-6 (8), 5-7, 6-4. The next day, taking on Germany, these two each won their singles matches in straight sets. Said Trevisan, “From my side, I mean, with this year I played a lot of match maybe with Top 10 and is experience. So when I came here, I was more prepared than last year.”

“But you have to be happy for what you've done,” said Italian captain Tathiana Garbin following Thursday’s win over Germany. “For me, every time you win, you have to celebrate. It's good to celebrate, because otherwise something normal you have done. This, for us, is not normal to reach a semifinal after very long time.”

Trevisan is 0-1 versus both Juvan and Zidansek. But those matches took place, respectively, in 2020 and 2018. Paolini has split two matches with Juvan and won both times she and Zidansek have played one other; those two were also long ago, the most recent happening in 2019.

Czech Republic vs. Canada

The Czech Republic team has been masterful, exceptionally so on Friday when it eliminated the United States. The start was slow, Katerina Siniakova beaten handily by Danielle Collins, 6-3, 6-2. Things speeded up considerably. Playing her first match of the week, Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova took just over an hour to defeat Sofia Kenin, 6-1, 6-1. Vondrousova’s lefthanded game was a Swiss Army knife, everything from topspin to drop shots to lobs serves completely overwhelming a willful but constantly flummoxed Kenin.

And yet, if all was technically deadlocked, to a great degree, much tilted in the Czech Republic’s favor. For surely, the team of Siniakova and Barbora Krejcikova is the ultimate ace in the hole. Valiantly as the American duo of Collins and lefty Taylor Townsend fought, they were repeatedly outmaneuvered by the skillful Czechs, in the end losing, 6-3, 7-5.

Canada’s surprising key ingredient has been a newcomer. Picked to play singles over veterans Rebecca Marino and Eugenie Bouchard, 18-year-old Marina Stakusic kicked things off nicely for Canada on Wednesday with a snappy 6-3, 6-1 win over Spain’s Rebeka Masarova. A day later, in a match that lasted almost three hours, Stakusic fought back from behind to beat Magdalena Frech of Poland, 4-6, 7-5, 6-3. Said Canadian captain Heidi El Tabakh, “it's fair to say a champion is born. We all believed in her ability and capabilities, but I think she surpassed everyone's expectations and just, you know, showed everyone that she belongs here, man.”

Joining Stakusic in the singles is lefty Leylah Fernandez, a player who’s customary on-court passion makes her a natural fit for Billie Jean King Cup. Fernandez too has found an excellent range. Seeking to clinch it on day one versus Spain, Fernandez labored for nearly three hours to overcome Sara Sorribes Tormo in two tiebreakers. A day later, she easily defeated Poland’s Magda Linette, 6-2, 6-3.

As you’d expect from a teenager who only this week reached a career high of No. 258, Stakusic has not played any of the Czech players. Of course, that could work in her favor, as Stakusic is far more familiar with them than they are with her. On the other hand, there’s the matter of this high-stakes occasion, and how well Stakusic handles the pressure.

Fernandez is 2-1 versus Siniakova, the most recent a loss that happened just last month in Nanchang. She’s 0-1 against Vondrousova and Krejcikova.

“We were able to come in with confidence and finish with confidence, and that's what we wanted,” said Fernandez. “I'm just super happy, again, with the team chemistry and the way that we just keep having fun on court and keep getting better day by day.”

Should it come down to the doubles, the matchup could be quite intriguing. Siniakova and Krejcikova might well play recent US Open champion Gabriela Dabrowski and a one-time prodigy still trying to regain her top form, Eugenie Bouchard. Fernandez could also take the court. She has played excellent doubles all year long with Townsend, including a run to the final at Roland Garros.

“It's going to be another tough day,” said Czech captain Petr Pala, “and we want to do everything to be in the finals to play for the Cup, and I think the motivation is there, I don't need to say anything to the girls. We just have to make right decisions and to give us the best chance to beat Canada.”

Hesitant as I am to make predictions, my belief is that the winner of the Czech Republic-Canada match will be the strong favorite to win the title on Sunday.