Setting Up Sunday: Tsitsipas vs Alcaraz rematch in Barcelona, repeat finals in Stuttgart and Munich

WATCH: Stefanos Tsitsipas defeats Lorenzo Musetti in the 2023 Barcelona Open semifinals

Familiar and new contenders dot the landscape as the European clay court season kicks into high gear. On the men’s side, with Rafael Nadal still sidelined and Novak Djokovic scratching for form, it’s wide open. And on the WTA Tour, others are vying to challenge Iga Swiatek’s reign – including a fellow Grand Slam title holder she’s set to face in the finals of Stuttgart.

Joel Drucker offers a look at three of Sunday’s finals.

WTA Stuttgart: Porsche Tennis Grand Prix – Iga Swiatek vs. Aryna Sabalenka

No. 1 Iga Swiatek meets No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka in a rematch of last year’s Stuttgart final. Swiatek last competed more than a month ago at Indian Wells and has spent that time recovering from a rib injury. Amid rehab and rust, her level of match toughness is uncertain. Due to a first round bye and a first set retirement from Ons Jabeur in Saturday’s semi, Swiatek has only played two complete matches this week. One was a three-setter versus Karolina Pliskova, Swiatek dropping the opener, 6-4, before taking charge to win the next two, 6-1, 6-2. Following that match, Swiatek said, “Overall I felt like at the beginning I couldn’t really focus.”

Twelve months ago in Stuttgart, Swiatek took 84 minutes to handily beat Sabalenka, 6-2, 6-2. But since then, Sabalenka has taken major strides forward. Most notable was how she personally took responsibility for fixing her serve, a form of ownership that’s likely translated into significant upgrades in both patience and confidence. The results have followed, highlighted by a breakthrough title run at the Australian Open.

Sabalenka’s three Stuttgart wins have each revealed much. She dropped just five games versus 2021 Roland Garros champion Barbora Krejcikova, toughed out a three-setter over formidable Paula Badosa, and in the semis, easily defeated Anastasia Potapova (who upset Coco Gauff and Caroline Garcia), 6-1, 6-2.

Though Swiatek has won four of the six times these two have played one another, Sabalenka won their most recent, a 6-2, 2-6, 6-1 win in the semis of last year’s WTA Finals. If history gives Swiatek the edge, current form favors Sabalenka. But most of all, the quality each brings will reveal much as these two seek to calibrate sharp and fresh on the road to Roland Garros.

ATP Munich: BMW Open by American Express – Holger Rune vs. Botic van de Zandschulp

For the second week in a row and third time in his young career, 19-year-old Holger Rune has reached a clay court final. Seven days ago, he lost a terrific three-setter to Andrey Rublev in the finals of the Masters 1000 event in Monte Carlo. That was the culmination of a rigorous effort, highlighted by wins over Top 10 players Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner. In Munich, where Rune won his first ATP Tour singles title last year, the workload has been much less demanding. Of the three men he’s beaten on the way to the final without dropping a set, Rune’s highest-ranked opponent was No. 82 Christopher O’Connell.

Just like the WTA event in Stuttgart, this is also a rematch of a final played last year, Rune set to take on Dutchman Botic van de Zandschulp. Alas, that match ended prematurely. With Rune serving at 3-4, 40-15 in the first set, Van de Zandschulp was forced to retire with a chest injury. Munich ‘22 was the one previous time these two have met—and also Van de Zandschulp’s only prior trip to an ATP Tour singles final. Seeded fourth in Munich, the 27-year-old Van de Zandschulp also hasn’t lost a set all week. In the semis, he showed exceptional resolve in taking down second-seeded Taylor Fritz, 6-4, 7-6 (2).

While Van de Zandschulp has commendably inched his way up from 40 back then to a current spot of 29, Rune has soared from 70 to seven. If you’re concerned about how tennis will be played in the post-Big Three era, worry not when watching Rune. The dynamic Dane is a breath of fresh air, his game a pleasing mix of power, speed and that rare but cherished ability to frequently deliver something surprising when it matters most.

ATP Barcelona: Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell – Carlos Alcaraz versus Stefanos Tsitsipas

In pondering this sparkling matchup and its potentially significant consequences, let us start with a pivot away from data-driven analysis and instead find meaning from music. Since Barcelona’s lively nightlife lends itself to song, it’s easy to ponder the melodies attached to each man’s arc.

For Alcaraz, winner of this title a year ago, the tune is Joe Walsh’s “Life’s Been Good.” For most players—heck, for most people in any endeavor—life is usually a trial-and-error process. But for this man who remains a teenager until May 5, call life trial-and-success, trial-and-success, rinse and repeat. Stylish and sporting, Alcaraz is now riding the enchanted wave of youth and greatness, a dazzling, unjaded manner that has rapidly made him both delightful to watch and extremely popular.

For Tsitsipas, the muse is Bob Dylan: “Knockin’ on Heaven’s Door.” The man from Greece soared up the ranks several years ago, has now reached two Grand Slam singles—and continues to seek the best way to navigate the tennis mountain. Having struggled with a shoulder injury for much of February and March, Tsitsipas this week in Barcelona appears on his way to getting back in tune.

While Alcaraz hasn’t lost a set this week, Tsitsipas has dropped just one, a tight 7-5 momentary setback versus Lorenzo Musetti in yesterday’s semi. Alcaraz has won all three of their prior matches, the most recent a quarterfinal in Barcelona last year that went three sets, the Spaniard winning it 6-4, 5-7, 6-2.

Between them, these two have won nine clay court titles—five for Alcaraz, four for Tsitsipas. But no two players more reveal that clay court tennis is no longer what it once was. Defense? Attrition? No way. Count instead on tremendous movement, exceptional shot-making and many a glorious rally. Per another Dylan effort, there will be plenty of blood on the tracks.