Shaking Up Shanghai: Zverev and Tsitsipas dismiss Federer and Djokovic

After all these years of waiting for a changing of the guard at the top of men’s tennis, did it happen while we were asleep?

That’s probably overstating the case. But there was a shake-up in Shanghai on Friday, one that could—possibly, perhaps, maybe—have lasting repercussions for the future of the ATP tour.

Many of us in the U.S. woke up to twin surprises. First, 21-year-old Stefanos Tsitsipas beat Novak Djokovic, 3-6, 7-5, 6-3. Then, 22-year-old Alexander Zverev beat Roger Federer, 6-3, 6-7 (7), 6-3. Just like that, the top two seeds, and two-thirds of the Big Three, were out. And just like that, two promising young players who have had up-and-down seasons were back up—way up—and into the semifinals, where they’ll be joined by Daniil Medvedev and Matteo Berrettini, both 23.

Before this year, the Shanghai Masters had been the exclusive province of the old guard; since 2010, it has had only three champions, Djokovic, Federer and Andy Murray. This year it will be the property of the Next Gen.

Now for the caveats. Shanghai is not one of the Grand Slam tournaments, which is where the sport’s history is written, and where its revolutions occur. The tournament doesn’t even happen during the Grand Slam season; once the US Open is over, the stakes are lower, and chaos has been known to ensue. In 2018, another Next Genner, Karen Khachanov, beat Djokovic to win the Paris Masters, and Zverev did the same to win the ATP’s year-end championships in London. Then, when 2019 rolled around, it was the Big Three who dominated at the Slams again. When someone other than Djokovic, Federer or Nadal wins a major, then we can talk about a changing of the guard.

That said, these were important wins for Tsitsipas and especially Zverev, ones that remind us, and should remind them, of the level of play they’re capable of reaching. The Greek and the German had to overcome different hurdles to do it.

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Tsitsipas was faced with perhaps the stiffest challenge in tennis: How to get an in-form Djokovic out of form. Since retiring at the US Open, the world No. 1 had won seven straight matches, 14 straight sets, and a title in Tokyo. And he won the first set on Friday, an ominous sign for Tsitsipas: as commentator Ravi Ubha noted, Djokovic was 60-1 in China when he had won the first set.

But Tsitsipas had some momentum of his own. Last week he reached the final in Beijing, and he played some clutch tennis to beat Hubert Hurkacz in a third-set tiebreaker in the previous round in Shanghai. He also had a win over Djokovic, in Toronto last summer. This time, Tsitsipas began to find his range late in the second set. He made first serves; he seized the initiative in rallies with his forehand; and he found the corner with his down-the-line backhand. Djokovic had no answer for Tsitsipas’ serve, and he didn’t have time to turn defense back into offense. Tsitsipas made 72 percent of his first serves, won 83 percent of those points, and faced just one break point. If he was nervous down the stretch, his serve was the perfect, calming antidote.

MATCH POINT, Tsitsipas:

Where Tsitsipas had to find a way to come back against his Hall of Fame opponent, Zverev had to find a way to close his out. The German was sharp from the start against Federer, and the superior player for most of the first two sets. As with Tsitsipas, Zverev’s serve was the key. He made 78 percent of his first serves, and hit 17 aces to Federer's three. Zverev was just as good from the ground, especially with his passing shots, many of which he hit on the run.

When Zverev hit one of those 17 aces to reach triple match point at 6-5, 40-0 in the second set, he seemed to have secured his first Top 10 win of 2019. Instead, out of nowhere, Federer raised his level from sub-par to stratospheric in the span of a single point. At 40-0, he hit a forehand-volley winner from his shoe tops; at 40-30, he hit a drop volley at full stretch; and at break point, he threaded a half-volley down the line for another winner. To top that off, Federer saved two more match points in the tiebreaker.

Was Zverev going to have his Top 10 win stolen from him at the 11th hour? Did the Big Three still have the Next Gen’s number? Who would have put money on him winning the third set after that? But that’s what Zverev did. He never got negative, never hung his head, never smashed a racquet, and, most important, never stopped hitting big serves and brilliant passing shots. When Zverev finally closed it out on his sixth match point, he let out a cathartic roar—it sounded as if he had been bottling it up for most of 2019.

MATCH POINT, Zverev:

Zverev’s win came with a sub-theme: At Laver Cup last month, Federer and Rafael Nadal urged him to be more positive, and not to get down on himself no matter what happened. Zverev went on to win the clinching match for their team that weekend, and today he stayed serenely calm even as Federer clawed his way back into the match. But too much can be made of the link between what happened at Laver Cup, which is an exhibition, and what happened in Shanghai, which is a Masters 1000 event. Today it counted, and today Zverev was up to the task.

Shanghai has become the Next Gen Masters; that’s what fall is for, right? For Tsitsipas and Zverev, it could mean more in the coming months, and next season. They didn’t change the guard last night, but they did confirm that men’s tennis still has a future.