Shanghai Preview: No Novak Djokovic, but rest of ATP's best return to Rolex Masters for first time since 2019

Shanghai was a major ATP stop for two decades, first as the home of the tour’s year-end championships, and then, from 2009 to 2019, as the site of the Rolex Masters 1000. But after three Covid years away, it almost feels like a new tournament on the schedule—and, with a $10 million purse, a very lucrative one.

In truth, the Shanghai Masters will reclaim its place as the anchor event of the men’s Asian swing. Most of the Top 30—minus Novak Djokovic—has made the trip. Here’s a look at how the draw may play out, some of which may be determined by how the court plays out. It has been fast in the past.

First Quarter

Carlos Alcaraz is the No. 1 seed, but he’s also the player who may have the most to gain in Shanghai. With Djokovic absent, he has a chance to make up some ground in their No. 1 chase. Alcaraz has embraced that competition, though he wasn’t able to max out his point haul in Beijing, where he lost in the semifinals.

The Spaniard will be making his Shanghai debut, and he’ll be the star of the show for as long as he lasts in the draw. He’ll start against either Nuno Borges or Gregoire Barrere; the first seed he could face is Dan Evans; and Taylor Fritz is a potential quarterfinal opponent. Alcaraz may have to adjust to the potentially fast surface, but his draw could have been worse.

Also here: Frances Tiafoe

Semifinalist: Alcaraz

Second Quarter

Tsitsipas and Rublev, Rublev and Tsitsipas. Does it always seem as if there’s a quarter where these two are the highest seeds? They’re No. 4 and 5 in Shanghai, and their roads to the quarters are of roughy equal difficulty. Each has a mid-ranked Frenchman as a potential third-round opponent—Ugo Humbert for Tsitsipas, Adrian Mannarino for Rublev. And each has a player who has beaten him before as a potential fourth-round foe—Cam Norrie for Tsitsipas, Tommy Paul for Rublev.

As for Tsitsipas’ form, he has been in a slump since attempting to jettison his father as his coach. He’s coming off early losses in Cincy, Flushing Meadows and Beijing. Can this year’s Australian Open runner-up start to get things turned around before a new season is upon us?

Semifinalist: Rublev

Third Quarter

Speaking of two players who always seem to end up in the same quarter: Casper Ruud and Holger Rune are the top seeds here. Neither Scandinavian has been on fire of late; at the US Open, both were gone by the second round. We’ll see how the unfamiliar conditions and surface in Shanghai suits them.

Ruud starts against Yoshihito Nishioka, and could play Alex de Minaur in the fourth round. Rune starts with Brandon Nakashima, and could play Hubert Hurkacz in the fourth round.

In the past, Chris Eubanks has watched the late-season Masters 1000s from far away, on his TV set, like the rest of us. Now he’s the 29th seed in Shanghai, and he’ll face Yannick Hanfmann in his opener.

Semifinalist: Hurkacz

Fourth Quarter

Jannik Sinner just got through winning his first match in seven tries against Daniil Medvedev, in Beijing. Is he going to have do it again a week later in Shanghai? They’re are drawn into the same quarter here.

Of the two, Sinner may have the more difficult road, because of the presence of Alexander Zverev as a possible fourth-round opponent. Medvedev, meanwhile, may have Sebastian Korda—who beat him this year at the Australian Open—in the third round, and Felix Auger-Aliassime in the fourth.

Already out: Three-time Shanghai champion Andy Murray, to Roman Safiullin, 6-3, 6-2.

Question Mark: Auger-Aliassime. He has had a mostly lost season, and has a lot of points to defend in October

Also here: Ben Shelton, Francisco Cerundolo

Semifinalist: Zverev

Semifinals: Alcaraz d. Rublev; Zverev d. Hurkacz

Final: Alcaraz d. Zverev