This year could be a particularly telling one in the ongoing effort to sustain the credibility of the ATP Tour championships, because just looking at the draw of the TMC makes me shiver; I can't recall many years when you can make so good a case for the overall quality of the field. Not that long ago, tennis was dominated by two or three major stars, and most of the other competitors in an event like the YEC were supporting cast. Take Hannover, Germany, ten years ago almost to the day: the qualifiers were Pete Sampras, Carlos Moya, Karol Kucera, Yevgeny Kafelnikov, Marcelo Rios, Andre Agassi, Alex Corretja and Tim Henman. Although Rios was in the midst of his career year (in a career cut short), it was difficult to imagine a Kafelnikov, Moya, or Corretja winning the title (never mind Kucera, or even Henman).
It's different in 2008. I would be surprised if Simon or Davydenko won the event, but beyond that all bets are off. You can make a great case for everyone else in the top 8. The least persuasive choice would be Juan Martin del Potro, but he may also be the most dangerous in a sneaky way. He's a strong, raw-boned guy, and he showed an impressive degree of stamina through the long, hot summer on hard courts. The one thing I feel pretty sure about is that del Potro isn't about to go away any time soon; there's something both big and durable about his game that makes me think he's going to be in the mix at the top, especially now that he's earned a little more confidence.
It's funny, but about a year ago, I saw him as a kind of gentle giant, a little hunched up and within himself, as if he were self-conscious about his size and power. He seems a lot more forceful now, personality-wise, and content in his own skin; winning can do that for you.
And on item no. 2, I know many of you were bummed out when Nadal's withdrawal from Shanghai ended all hope of a final showdown with Federer, and saw Nadal's decision as a convenient way to duck Federer and also prepare for Davis Cup. Granted, by this time of the year, withdrawal due to injury is a common strategy, but there's nothing new in that. Let's go back a decade to that '98 YEC. Two of the contenders (Rios and Agassi) pulled out with injury, and guess who played the final? I'm serious, guess (I'll give you the answer at the foot of this post).
Nadal's latest communication disappointed me far more than did his withdrawal from Shanghai. This Davis Cup final promised to be one of the most compelling match-ups we've seen in a long time, what with the indoor hard surface chosen for the tie compensating for the prowess of Nadal, and diminishing the prospects of the presumed no. 2 for Spain, David Ferrer. Spain is due to announce its team on Tuesday, and a part of me wonders if Nadal is capable of making a miracle recovery and becoming a last minute substitute for one of the nominaged players. As I read the rules, Nadal could make a miracle recovery and still play in the tie. And let's remember, Tendinitis is not a career-threatening type of injury (as is a torn rotater cuff, or blow-out knee); nothing is torn, or broken. Mostly tendinitis develops from overuse, and the cure for it is rest.
I'm not suggesting that the Spanish team is sandbagging, and the chance of Nadal changing his mind and playing the final is, at best, remote. But it's worth leaving just a tiny bit of room for further maneuvering by the Spanish team. If Nadal doesn't play, I find it hard to imagine a demoralized Spain stepping up to beat Argentina. But Nalbandian and company will surely feel the pressure, and as we all know strange things tend to happen in Davis Cup.
-- Pete
PS - in the '98 YEC, Corretja beat Moya, 7-5 in the fifth, to earn the biggest title of his career.
