Sinner, Fritz, or someone else: Which ATP star could use a promising Indian Wells result?

Indian Wells doesn’t start the tennis season, but it does send it into the next gear.

From the start of this tournament in the California desert, to the end of the US Open on the other side of the U.S. six months later, virtually everything that the top men and women play will be either a major or a Masters 1000 event. Big moves tend to be made in March: Just ask Carlos Alcaraz and Iga Swiatek, both of whom announced themselves as No. 1 players of the future during the Sunshine Double of 2022.

Who might make a move in Indian Wells in 2026? More specifically, who needs to make one to keep their seasons on track? Here’s a look at five male players who could use a promising result:

Jannik Sinner

Rank: 2

2025 IW Result: Did Not Play

It’s safe to say that Sinner’s best tennis memories have not come in Indian Wells. He tested positive for a banned substance after the 2024 edition, and was banned from the event in 2025. It’s also the rare tournament where he has yet to make the final. In 2023 and 2024, he lost to Carlos Alcaraz in the semis.

All of which makes this the ideal time for the Italian to put that behind him with his first title in the desert. He has fallen a half step behind Alcaraz so far this year, losing in the semis in Melbourne and quarterfinals of Doha, and then watching as Alcaraz won both titles. Another defeat for Sinner at a tournament of this size will raise an eyebrow or two.

Still, the history between these two says that Sinner will reassert himself at some point. He won’t want to wait until the clay season to do it.

Taylor Fritz

Rank: 7

2025 IW Result: 4th round

Fritz is 8-3 since the United Cup. He reached the final in Dallas, and had match points for the title. He just moved up a spot to No. 7. He did all of that with a shaky knee.

No reason to panic, right? Right. The problem is that Fritz has been clear he wants to do more than tread water in the Top 10. That’s especially true at Indian Wells, which this SoCal native considers his home tournament, and which he won four years ago.

Fritz has spent his 20s making a long, slow climb up the rankings, and into the second week at majors. That trek took him all the way to the US Open final two years ago, but he hasn’t been back to a similar summit since, and he hasn’t won another Masters 1000 since that IW title in 2022. At 28, does he still have time to launch himself into the Sincaraz stratosphere? This would be a good place to start.

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: 11

2025 IW Result: Semifinal

Medvedev looked ready for a reboot in 2026, after a mostly disastrous previous 12 months. He hired a new coach, and, at 30, had a new desire to prove himself and make the most of the years he has left. After he broke out of the gates with a title in Brisbane, I picked him to make the Australian Open final. Instead, he was streamrolled by Learner Tien in the fourth round, and then lost early in Rotterdam and Doha. As I write this, he’s in the semis in Dubai.

Medvedev famously trashed the hard courts in Indian Wells for being too slow. But the surface has been good to him. He has made the final twice, and last year, in one of his few successful weeks of 2025, he made the semifinals. Which means, of course, that he’ll be defending those points this time around. An early loss could stall his comeback significantly.

Jakub Mensik

Rank: 13

2025 IW Result: 2nd round

The crucial week for Mensik will come in Miami. That’s where he’s defending 1000 champion’s points; if he exits early there, he may be out of the Top 20.

But he could also use a confidence-building result in Indian Wells. After that Miami win, the young Czech failed to make another semifinal in 2025. So far in 2026, he has been up and down, winning a title in Auckland and making a semi in Doha after defeating Sinner. Mensik is still just 20, he’s still 6’5, he still has a killer serve and a bright future. He could make that future get here a little faster with a strong Sunshine Double.

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: 19

2025 IW Result: Quarterfinal

At this time last year, Cerundolo looked like he was about to become a multi-surface threat. The Argentine is a natural clay-courter, but he used his early-season momentum on South American dirt to make the quarterfinals on hard courts in Indian Wells and Miami. That momentum took him to the semifinals in Munich and Madrid, and made him a dark horse at Roland Garros. But something snapped in Paris. He lost in the first round there, and at Wimbledon, and never recovered his form in 2025.

Now the 27-year-old appears to have that momentum back. He made the fourth round at the Australian Open, and this month he won his fourth career title, in Buenos Aires. Cerundolo has always had a forehand that should translate on all surfaces. Let’s see if he can make it work well enough too defend his IW points from a year ago.