Sinner vs. Atmane, Alcaraz vs. Zverev: Cincinnati men's semifinal previews

Jannik Sinner vs. Terence Atmane

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Estimated start time: 3:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, August 16

If you’re unfamiliar with Terence Atmane’s work—and no one would blame you if you are—the first thing you should know about him is that his playing idol is Fernando Gonzalez. Not Roger Federer, not Rafael Nadal, not Novak Djokovic, not even any of his fellow Frenchmen. Gonzalez, as you may remember, was an aughts-era Chilean who basically hit his forehand as hard as possible every chance he could. That may sound like basic strategy, but it worked well enough to get him to an Australian Open final 20-odd years ago.

And that’s how pretty much how Atmane has gone about blowing up the draw, Victoria Mboko style, at the Cincinnati Open over the past week. The 23-year-old, world No. 136 has faced four guys who we thought might be dark horses—Cobolli, Fonseca, Fritz, Rune—and sent them all packing just as Gonzalez would have, with his forehand. Atmane, a lefty, hits it as often as he can, as hard as he can, and as close to the lines as he can. None of his higher-ranked opponents have found a way to counter it. From the start against Fritz, Atmane took the rallies to the American with more aggressive energy, and was rewarded for it.

Now he’ll go from facing dark horses to facing a favorite. Will Sinner find a way to derail the Atmane train? The top seed appears to be in the right form to do it. After a couple of couple of ordinary outings against Gabriel Diallo and Adrian Mannarino, Sinner was back to his top-tier self against Felix Auger-Aliassime on Thursday. He beat the former Top Tenner 6-0, 6-2, and didn’t allow the Canadian to hit a winner for the first 40 minutes.

👉 READ MORE: What's the best bet in Atmane vs. Sinner?

Sinner didn’t bother trying to downplay his performance.

“I returned very, very well,” he said. “My serve was great. I raised my level, which I was looking for.”

Yet it was a comment from Auger-Aliassime that may better explain why this match was so one-sided. He told Tennis Channel beforehand that Sinner, who just won Wimbledon, is essentially unbeatable right now. Does Atmane believe the same thing? The two have never played. Can he bring the same ultra-aggressive style and total conviction to his forehand and his attacking game plan that we’ve seen so far, against an opponent of Sinner’s stature?

If he does, Atmane has a chance to keep the match close, but I still wouldn’t pick him to win. His forehand is excellent, his lefty spin is tricky, and he should feel like he has nothing to lose. But his backhand is not at that level, especially on the return; I would expect Sinner to pick on it with his slice serve in both the deuce and ad courts. I’d also expect him control more of the rallies and track down more of the Frenchman’s forehands. The Atmane train has been fun to watch, but I’ll say this is the end of the line. Winner: Sinner

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev

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Estimated start time: 6:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, August 16

No one would say that Zverev, at 28, has had anything like the career that Alcaraz has already had at 22. Where the German is still searching for his first major title, and has never been No. 1, the Spaniard has five majors to his name and has spent 36 weeks in the top spot.

The same is true for their 2025 seasons. Where Alcaraz dominated the clay swing, repeated at Roland Garros, and made the Wimbledon final, Zverev has looked lost in the wilderness much of the time, to the point where he started talking this summer about how alone he feels on court.

And yet, if you go by a couple of other relevant metrics—rankings and head to head—you could say that the Spaniard and the German come into this match on even terms.

They’ve spent 2025 ranked No. 2 and No. 3. Zverev started the year at No. 2, but they traded positions for good in May. Their record against each other is just as close: Zverev leads 6-5. He’s also 4-2 on hard courts, and he won their most recent meeting, at the ATP Finals on indoor hard in Turin last fall. Alcaraz has a 3-1 advantage at the majors, and he’s won both of their previous contests on U.S. hard courts easily.

In other words, Zverev matches up surprisingly well against Alcaraz one on one. His serve is as effective against him as it is against anyone else. His consistency, ranginess and depth of shot forces Alcaraz to hit more balls than he would like to finish a rally. Zverev also doesn’t have to generate a lot of his own pace when he faces him.

But the most important positives for Zverev in this matchup may be mental. One, he enjoys Alcaraz’s sporting quality, and the mutual respect that he and the Spanish superstar have for each other. Two, Zverev doesn’t have a whole lot to use when he plays him; a loss isn’t going to destroy him psychologically.

So who might have the edge on Saturday?

If we go by their seasons and their current levels of confidence, Alcaraz is the favorite. Zverev has won one small title this year, at home in Germany, and he has come up short in most of his big matches, even when he has played decent tennis. His semifinal defeat to Karen Khachanov in Toronto two weeks ago was typical. Zverev played evenly with him through three sets, until they reached the deciding tiebreaker. Then he suddenly couldn’t make a ball; after each miss, he shot his dad a pained look that said, “Why is this happening again?”

After Friday, there’s also some question about Zverev’s physical state. He called the doctor out during his quarterfinal and talked about how much he was sweating, and how much trouble he had breathing. Afterward, he said he didn’t know what happened, but it’s going to be similarly hot here on Saturday evening.

All of that said, Alcaraz is not the overwhelming favorite. His three-set quarterfinal win over Andrey Rublev was hardly his cleanest. He had more errors than winners, and he failed to serve out the match at 5-3 in the third set.

But Alcaraz was still satisfied with the performance, mainly because, as he said, he “stayed with the positive emotions” even when the errors were flowing off his racquet. Maybe that positivity, coupled with Zverev’s long-running negativity about his game and his year, will make the difference between them this time. Winner: Alcaraz