I know I said I would be back on December 30 with my look ahead to 2006. I have no excuse. I just put it off until it was too late, and then put it off a little more. I’ve been surprised by the uproar, though. It’s amazing how many people have approached me in the street demanding to know when they’re going to get the Wrap’s 2006 preview. “My God, man, the season has already started, and I don’t know what to think,” they inevitably say.
I’ll keep you in suspense no longer—here are six topics of tennis discussion for the new year.
1. Martina Hingis
There’s an ad for Florida’s Saddlebrook Resort that’s been running on the Tennis Channel for about two years now. It features Hingis, who trains there, hitting a forehand volley. She does it casually, without bothering to turn and get set. But her contact is clean and effortless, as only she could do it. It’s always left me wanting to see more. Now we’ll get our chance. How will she do?
I saw one of Hingis’ World Team Tennis matches last summer. She struggled against a journeywoman, her lack of power more obvious than ever. She was also incredulous at not being able to roll over a no-name. Along with a weak serve (she’s been working on it), this may be the major question for Hingis: Will she have the patience to struggle against players a thousand times less famous than she is? For a prediction, I think she’ll end the year at No. 15, just below the hard-hitting elite of the women’s game. Wherever she finishes, it’s already been nice, after a couple years of grimaces and histrionics from Maria Sharapova and the Williams sisters, to see Hingis’ infamous little smile again.
2. America’s Leading Men
In my 2005 preview for TENNIS, I asked if it was time to write off the latest U.S. generation of men. My conclusion was that when it comes to Taylor Dent, Robby Ginepri, James Blake, and Mardy Fish, all you can say is that you never know what’s going to happen next. This proved to be true in a big way in 2005, when Blake and Ginepri, both perilously close to also-ran status as the year began, had simultaneous breakthrough summers and finished in the Top 25.
So what’s next for them—retirement? I’m going to go out on a limb and say they’re for real this time, and that each will improve his ranking again in 2006. Blake is as explosive as any man this side of Roger Federer, and Ginepri seems to have found a winning combination of patience and fitness. They should both thrive on the neutral surface at the year’s first major, the Australian Open. Let’s hope that Blake, in particular, continues his winning ways: No one in the game, man or woman, has more crossover-star potential.
Of course, there is one other American man of note. Andy Roddick won five tournaments and finished No. 3 last year, but it was widely seen as a disastrous season. Roddick says he’s going to let loose on his return of serve to start the year, and that sounds good. But he’s looked confused the last couple of seasons about whether to throw caution to the wind, as he did in his early days, or play a thoughtful, controlled game, which his coach, Dean Goldfine, has urged. The one thing I would say is that when Roddick has won big matches in the past, my main memory is of him controlling the action with his forehand and going to any length to get a crack at it.
3. Drugs
This may soon rival the injury dilemma as the most vexing subject in tennis. While it has only affected the game on its fringes thus far, there’s no reason to think that tennis has less of a problem with banned substances than steroid-tainted sports like baseball and cycling. The ITF and the World Anti-Doping Association have taken over testing from the tours, which one would think would mean a less-conflicted system. Among the men, the list of players caught cheating has found its way into the Top 10, though for some reason they all seem to reside in Argentina.
I think this is the year we’ll see that list reach into the Top 5 and spread more significantly to other countries. Still, exactly what the players are taking will remain impossible to know, and the line between just and draconian punishments extremely hard to draw. Was Mariano Puerta’s recent eight-year ban fair because this was his second offense, or absurdly harsh because even the investigators conceded he had taken a banned substance inadvertently? It’s not the last time this kind of question will come up.
4. Czech Mates
Each is blond, frequently testy, and almost too tall for the game—he’s 6-foot-4, she’s a 6-footer—but the Czech Republic’s Tomas Berdych and Nicole Vaidisova are shaping up to be the breakout players of 2006. After an up-and down year that included eight first-round losses, Berdych, whose serve and forehand are both effortlessly monstrous, won his first Masters Series title near the end of 2005. His talent is Safin-level; let’s hope his concentration isn’t. Vaidisova, surprisingly smooth and coordinated for someone so rangy, won three straight tournaments late last year, and she won’t turn 17 until August.
5. Roger Federer vs. Rafael Nadal
Men’s tennis fans continue to pray for a rivalry that will take us back to the Olympian heights of Borg-McEnroe—or at least the mezzanine-level of Agassi-Sampras. Do we have a chance with Federer and Nadal, who together distanced themselves from the rest of the field in 2005? Stranger things have happened. While they have different specialties—Nadal was 48-2 on clay last year; Federer won a record 35 straight matches on hard courts—they split two dramatic head-to-head matches and the first eight Masters Series titles (neither played the ninth). They have contrasting styles and demeanors: In short, Federer doesn’t sweat, Nadal does nothing but. Most important, while Federer is clearly the more accomplished player, Nadal’s high-kicking lefty forehand is the one shot in tennis that gives him fits. If Nadal enters the Aussie Open, look for them to kick the season off with a classic final.
6. The Slams
OK, who’s going to win the big ones this year? Here are my predictions, with (some) justification. Come back to me in a month, after the injuires and mental breakdowns have begun, and I’ll have a new set.
Australian Open
Men: Roger Federer
Women: Amelie Mauresmo
Federer will win, but look for David Nalbandian to go far in this one as well. Mauresmo is due, and she’s coming off a breakout win at the 2005 year-end championship
French Open
Men: Rafael Nadal
Women: Kim Clijsters
He owns Paris, for now, and Clijsters has been to the final here twice.
Wimbledon
Men: Roger Federer
Women: Maria Sharapova
He really owns London, and her consistency and desire will finally pay off with a second major.
U.S. Open
Men: Andy Roddick
Women: Serena Williams
A blast from the past, I know, but they both love the New York limelight too much to stay out of it forever.