We seem, after three years, an entirely new dual-gender tournament, two new major arenas, and a flip-flop or two in the schedule, to have the clay season straight at last. It’s Madrid first, Rome second, with all the men and women who can make it. Nadal has won his local tournament, Djokovic has won his, even Julia Goerges has won hers. Now it’s time to get everyone together again for the stretch drive to Paris. I can’t quite believe it’s May already myself, but here we are. There's other news at the moment, I realize, but tennis fans are set for a good month’s worth of dirtball.
But before we get ahead of ourselves, let’s take alook at what’s right in front of us, this first week in Madrid. This close to Roland Garros, the training has been done, and everyone is going to want to make a good impression.
The Men (draw here)
First Quarter
You can count this as one clay event, maybe the only clay event, that Rafael Nadal hasn’t always relished. He’s been leery of playing at a higher altitude before the French Open, and, worse, he’s even lost here, to Federer in 2009. Of course, all of that is relative; Nadal has only lost in Madrid once, having paid Federer back in the final last May.
This time, whatever his concerns about the air, Nadal couldn’t come in with much more confidence or better preparation, having won in Monte Carlo and Barcelona and gotten a week off before the big push for his sixth French. His quarter isn’t stocked with frightening bold-faced names—Melzer, Roddick, and Youzhny are the three seeded players here. But it’s a non-seed who might throw some rare real clay fear in the Spaniard. Nadal could face Juan Martn del Potro in his second match, a few days after del Potro played his best tennis of the season in beating Fernando Verdasco for the title in Estoril. They’ve only played on clay once, in 2007 in Paris, with Nadal winning in straights. But a del Potro with momentum is an ominous thought for the rest of the tour, and that includes Rafa on clay. I wouldn’t be surprised if del Potro beats him, but I’m not going to predict that it’s going to happen.
Semifinalist: Nadal
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Second Quarter
On paper, Madrid will give us our second Federer-Nadal semifinal. Federer is quartered with Soderling, Tsonga—who has already beaten, with surprising ease, Almagro—Verdasco, Lopez, and Raonic. Federer has stuck with the approach that he’s used the last two years for the clay season: start slowly, don’t worry about the early events, get it together by Madrid, where he has reached the final each of those seasons. He seemed satisfied making the quarters in Monte Carlo; Madrid is a week earlier this time, which doesn’t make it quite as urgent as before, but it’s still a chance for Federer to start to rebuild the momentum he hasn’t had since the Australian Open. Raonic in the first round would be interesting; Verdasco after that might be tricky, in Verdasco’s hometown. But a lot might depend on Soderling, who is still re-gathering his own momentum after an injury. He had a decent quarterfinal run in Estoril. Is he ready to match his performance against Federer from last year’s French Open? The Swede is, as I’ve just remembered, the two-time defending runner-up in Paris.
Disappointing loss that happened pre-preview: Dolgopolov to Giraldo, 1 and 5.
Semifinalist: Soderling
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Third Quarter
Here’s the wide-open section—Murray and Berdych on the ends, Monfils and Troicki in the middle, with a possible serious dark horse in the form of Nikolay Davydenko, who won last week in Munich. That's not quite as ominous a win as del Potro’s, but he can do damage on clay. Also here are two strong underachievers, Monaco and Simon—better players than their results would indicate. Murray, who simultaneously got himself together and got himself injured in Monte Carlo, is the high seed, but I don’t have any reason to pick anyone here so I’ll take . . . Monfils? He has to survive the Karlovic lottery first.
Interesting potential second-round rematch to watch: Murray vs. Simon
Semifinalist: Monfils
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Fourth Quarter
Djokovic continues. He won in Belgrade last week and comes to Madrid undefeated for the season; who would have believed that at the start of the year? He’s a capable clay-courter, as we know, a semifinalist in Paris who lost a classic to Nadal here two years ago. He also comes in with the right amount of rest and match play.
Who can stop him? Ferrer, finalist in Monte Carlo and Barcelona, is here, but you have to think he wouldn’t have been the finalist in either place had Djokovic been in those draws. Slumping Stan Wawrinka was here, but he was beaten. Um, Mardy Fish is here? Adrian Mannarino, is he still here? Thiemo de Bakker is here: Whatever happened to him?
Unfortunate first-rounder of the week: Fish vs. Isner. Should have flipped a coin back in the States.
Semifinalist: Djokovic
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Semifinals: Nadal d. Soderling; Djokovic d. Monfils
Final: Nadal d. Djokovic
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The Women (draw here)
Top Half
Just to get it out of the way as we begin one of the WTA’s four mandatory events: No Williams, no Clijsters. What can the tour do, keep these women from drinking and dancing? OK, that said, there’s a lot to watch in Madrid for any devotee of the women’s game, especially on the left side of the draw.
At the top, Wozniacki soldiers on, carrying the star load to another town. Julia Goerges is in the next bracket; she might get Safina next. Stosur plays Hantuchova, Bartoli plays Pavlyuchenkova. Farther down there’s Azarenka, Petkovic, Radwanska, and Jankovic. That’s a very strong 32-draw event.
What can we look for? Is Serbia’s young Bojana Jovanovski ready to do anything against Wozniacki? Is Goerges a one-weeker, or something more? Is the Azarenka run done, or is it for real (she won her first match 0 and 0)? Where did that meltdown against Wozniacki in Stuttgart leave Petkovic? And, well, who will win between Radwanska and Jankovic? Does that count as a topic of concern?
Finalist: Azarenka
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Bottom Half
Questions for the flip side:
I went ahead and called No. 2 seed Vera Zvonareva “reliable” earlier this year: Was I wrong?
I’ve said a lot of good things about Petra Kvitova: Was I wrong there as well?
Where does Maria Sharapova stand at the moment? She was at an in-between stage in Indian Wells and Key Biscayne—stable in early rounders, very unstable in late-rounders. She could go deep again here.
Francesca Schiavone and Li Na: Is this tournament big enough for them to bring out their best stuff?
Is Svetlana Kuznetsova bottoming out? She lost 3 and 2 to Cibulkova in the first round.
Finalist: Zvonareva
Final: Azarenka d. Zvonareva