For the women's preview, click here.
By Tom Perrotta
Ivan Ljubicic? He’s a wonderful guy and deserving of a Masters-level title for all his hard work over the years, but admit it, you—along with the rest of the world—were shocked to see the 31-year-old Croat dump Rafael Nadal and Andy Roddick en route to the Indian Wells title (show me the pre-tournament draw that had Ljubicic winning and I’ll show you the handwriting of Ljubicic’s wife). In Miami, order will return for the men, just as it will for the women. And when I say order, I mean order, as in Roger Federer vs. Rafael Nadal, and everyone else get out of the way.
*
First Quarter
Federer blew three match points against Marcos Baghdatis in Indian Wells, but his level of play was hardly cause for concern. Yes, his game has some rust. But more important, he moved well and hit excellent shots in bunches. It’s easy to see him winning that title if he had closed out Baghdatis. In Miami, he has a great draw. Marin Cilic (who lost in the second round in Indian Wells) is the highest ranked player in Federer’s quarter; Baghdatis also lurks.
Federer vs. Cilic would make for a fine quarterfinal, if only because it’s fun to watch Federer out-think (and outrun) taller players who hit harder than he does. The two have played just once (in 2008; Federer won), and Cilic is a huge talent who has yet to show that he can win more than the occasional important match. I like his future, but not his chances in Miami.
—One to watch: After a nice run at the Australian Open and a title in San Jose, Fernando Verdasco, perhaps the most improved player on the tour the last two years, is in a bit of a slump (he’s 2-3 in his last five matches). Is the magic gone for good, or just on vacation?
Semifinalist: Federer
Second Quarter
Which Andy Murray will we see in Miami? The one who won the title last year? The one who played near perfect tennis on his way to the Australian Open final earlier this year? Or the lackadaisical mope who couldn’t win a set from Federer (in Australia) or Robin Soderling (in Indian Wells last week)?
I’ve been a Murray booster for a long time now, but his recent form worries me, particularly his serve. It’s too inconsistent and too easy to break (Murray has held serve 84 percent of the time so far this year, which ranks him 21st among his fellow players in that category). His recent experimentation in Dubai is troubling, too. Yes, players tend to try new things at smaller tournaments to prepare for the bigger ones. But Murray did it in a way that is acceptable for Roger Federer (holder of 16 major titles), not for Murray (holder of none). He’s too young to not try to win every match; that’s what Federer used to do when he was Murray’s age.
That said, I’m picking Murray to reach the semifinals in Miami. His draw isn’t an easy one. The serves of Mardy Fish and Feliciano Lopez could pose problems in the second and third rounds. Mikhail Youzhny, a potential fourth-round opponent, seems to have recovered from the swoon that began in Miami in 2008, when he literally smashed his head open with his racquet in frustration. If Murray gets through all that, he could face Soderling again.
—Blood Sport: If Youzhny and Nicolas Almagro win their first two matches, we’ll have a repeat of the contest that left Youzhny bloody. This time, everyone will be watching, just in case there’s more gore.
Semifinalist: Murray
**
Two-time Miami finalist Nadal is still looking for his first title at Crandon Park. (Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)Third Quarter
**In the bottom half of the draw, we have Rafa and the Giants. Nadal, who played superb tennis in Indian Wells before an uncharacteristic lapse in the semifinals, might have to withstand some serious serving in this tournament. Taylor Dent may be Nadal’s first opponent. After that, he could run up against Ivo Karlovic and either John Isner or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. There’s also David Nalbandian, on the comeback trail, as a possible third-round opponent.
It’s not an easy draw by any means, but Nadal should be able to navigate it if he strikes the ball as cleanly as he did in Indian Wells. He has business to settle in Miami, too. Two times he has made the final, and he’s lost both of them, the most recent to Nikolay Davydenko (in 2008). In 2005, he won the first two sets against Federer but dropped the next three. It’s time to make amends.
—First-round intrigue: Ryan Harrison, the best young American prospect, faces Michael Llodra, a hard-serving lefty and renowned locker-room prankster.
Semifinalist: Nadal
Fourth Quarter
It’s no fun to lose, and even less fun to lose in straight sets despite not dropping your serve, and despite winning as many overall points (84) as your opponent. Such was the plight of Andy Roddick last weekend in Indian Wells, where he lost the final to Ivan Ljubicic. He’ll have plenty of time to get over it in Miami. Roddick ought to cruise through this tournament, especially if Ljubicic, a potential fourth-round opponent, loses early, as I suspect he will. That might well leave Roddick with a chance to administer another beating to Tommy Robredo, who has taken just one set off of Roddick in 11 total matches.
The best players in the other section of Roddick’s draw are Novak Djokovic (who looked terrible in Indian Wells), Sam Querrey, Gael Monfils, and James Blake, assuming he plays like he has played recently. All in all, it’s a great section for Roddick, who should reach the semifinals.
—First-round intrigue: Blake takes on Filip Krajinovic, an 18-year-old Serb who is one of the top talents at Nick Bollettieri’s academy. A few years ago, I asked folks down there what might stand between Krajinovic and a first-rate career; the consensus answer was, “He’s popular with the girls.”
Semifinalist: Roddick
—Semifinals: Federer d. Murray, Nadal d. Roddick
—Final: Nadal d. Federer
Champion: Rafael Nadal