Howdy, everyone. Sorry to have been AWOL yesterday, but it's CDS (Credential Deadline Season) and I had to get my tennis travel plans for the summer worked out. I did have time to post a Davis Cup preview at ESPN, although I wrote exclusively about the U.S. vs. Serbia tie. As I write this, Viktor Troicki and John Isner have split tiebreaker sets, which strike me as good news for the U.S. It suggests that Troicki has had little luck breaking 6-9 Isner's serve.
This tie presents a very good argument for the genius of the Davis Cup format, in that the Americans appeared to catch a huge break when the Troicki vs. Isner match was drawn to kick off the tie. Novak Djokovic will be heavily favored against the U.S. no. 2 Sam Querrey - for very good reasons. With a 1-0 lead, Serbia would have some breathing room and be entitled to feel in control of the tie.
But down 0-1? That's a different story, and losing the opener to the U.S. will certainly increase the pressure on the Serbs under the exacting eyes of the partisans jammed into Belgrade Arena.
BTW, in case you don't know, Davis Cup captains no longer have the leisure of nominating their no. 1 and no. 2 players. Current rules dictate that whichever singles player on either squad has a higher ranking is automatically designated no. 1. I'm no sure that, given a choice, U.S. captain Pat McEnroe would have put Isner at no. 1 ahead of Querrey (Querrey has had a little Davis Cup experience, but Isner had none until today). But McEnroe he was spared having to agonize over the choice by the rules. This time, it worked out very well for the U.S.; that's where the "luck of the draw" factor in Davis Cup takes you. Next time, it may work against the U.S.
The draw put Troicki in a difficult spot. Since he's playing at home, on clay, against a Davis Cup first-timer, he's expected to win despite being ranked 15 places below Isner. That only adds to the already significant pressure, and to my way of thinking there's a lot more pressure on someone playing in front of an expectant home crowd than there is on a visitor surrounded by fans who couldn't care less about him.
Serbia is still the favorite, but it's conceivable that both U.S. singles players can beat Troicki, and Mike and Bob Bryan must be the choice in doubles (although ATP tour doubles specialist Nenad Zimonjic and Janko Tipsarivec could give them plenty of trouble). This looks to me like on of those ties that the U.S. can unexpectedly snatch away, unlikely as that may seem when you handicap the match-ups, venue, surface and even the experience factor.
Querrey and Isner are both green, but they're far from home and nicely set up, psychologically as well as surface-wise, to play spoiler. There's no pressure whatsoever on them, besides what they put on themselves. Troicki many need to win a match to help the Serbs take the tie, and he's only 6-2, combined, in Davis Cup. And he's lost the only Davis Cup singles match he's played against a solid player (It was Nikolay Davydenko, and there's certainly no shame in losing to him).
Let me get out of your road so you can begin commenting while it's still relevant. I'll be around all of this Davis Cup weekend. Have a good 'un.
-- Pete