State of the Season: How will Iga Swiatek fare in the final months of 2024?

What’s at Stake

Since attaining the world number one ranking in April 2022, Iga Swiatek has held that spot for all but eight weeks. But by the end of 2023, Swiatek had regained her place at the top from Aryna Sabalenka.

Though Swiatek has remained No. 1 ever since, the picture looks different this fall. While Swiatek won her fourth Roland Garros title this year, Sabalenka has taken the two hard-court majors, adding the US Open to a successful Australian Open title defense.

Read more: Swiatek “ready to play 'til November” despite scheduling gripes

Swiatek has significant points to defend from last season: title runs at the WTA 1000 stop in Beijing—which she’s opted to skip, citing "personal matters"—and the WTA Finals. And even if the points tally keeps Swiatek at number one on the computer, Sabalenka’s Slam success emphatically makes the case for her as the best player of 2024.

Well, I'm always trying to have lower expectations, because I know that any of us can win this tournament, and it's not going to be easy. And also, I feel like when I have high expectations, I never perform well. So, I try to lower them. Iga Swiatek

Most recently, Swiatek played some of the worst tennis of her career in the quarterfinals of the US Open, losing in straight sets to Jessica Pegula. This matches the pattern of her other 2024 Slam losses: in the third round of the Australia Open to world No. 50 Linda Noskova and No. 35 Yulia Putintseva at the same stage of Wimbledon.

Usually when the world’s best player is beaten—particularly at a major—the underdog either hits one fantastic shot after another or delicately unravels the favorite with a clever array of tactics. But that’s not been the case for Swiatek. Instead, the Pole committed errors with alarming frequency, the kind of sloppiness and emotional disarray unbecoming of a world No. 1. Simply put, that has been a disturbing sight.

Motivation

Distraught as Swiatek can be in defeat—and increasingly perturbed by the long grind of the WTA calendar—she was eager to fight the perception of burnout at the US Open. Asked following the Pegula loss if she’d consider taking time away from the tour, Swiatek said, “No, I don't think it would make sense. If you're out of tour, then it's pretty hard to come back.”

This is a competitor of significant devotion and ambition, Swiatek eager since her teens to capture big titles and leave a mark on the sport. Given what’s happened to Swiatek this year— those three troubling Slam losses most of all—one would figure her motivation this fall will be sky-high. That said, Swiatek has addressed those desires in rather roundabout fashion.

“Well, I'm always trying to have lower expectations,” Swiatek said in New York, “because I know that any of us can win this tournament, and it's not going to be easy. And also, I feel like when I have high expectations, I never perform well. So, I try to lower them. It's not like it's just low and that's it, because it's hard to have low expectations when everybody is expecting something from you, and you kind of know that you might have a game to play well.”

Tournaments to Watch

In line with her frequently articulated concern about scheduling demands, Swiatek opted to pull out of the WTA 500 event in Seoul that begins September 16. But more worryingly, she is sitting out the WTA 1000 event in Beijing, ceding the 1000 points that comes with it to Sabalenka.

Another 1000-level tournament looms the following week: Wuhan has returned to the tour for first time since 2019—the era before COVID and the WTA boycotting events in China to support Peng Shuai. As of now, Swiatek remains entered and would serve as the tournament’s top seed, but how Sabalenka fares in Beijing could significantly cut into Swiatek’s lead atop the WTA rankings.