It's been a season of surprises for Roger Federer fans. The Slam semifinal streak was snapped. Their hero was nearly beaten in the first round of Wimbledon. And he's lost three matches where he's held a match point.
Another oddity has been Federer's record in finals. He's just 2-4 this year, and has lost six of his last eight, dating back to the 2009 U.S. Open. This coming from someone who once won 24 consecutive times with the title on the line.
The most surprising Sunday slip-up this year came in Halle. Federer had owned this grass tournament, winning it five times. He entered the final holding a 15-match winning streak over his opponent, Lleyton Hewitt, and had lost just once on grass since 2003. Defying all the odds, Hewitt prevailed in three sets.
This is all to say that Federer's match tomorrow against Florian Mayer is no gimmie. Not at this point in Federer's career, where his mistakes are less an aberration and more a reality—even if some of his fans are unwilling to accept it. Federer is 2-0 against Mayer, but they haven't met since January 2006. Mayer has been fantastic this week in Stockholm, trouncing Feliciano Lopez in the first round (6-2, 6-2), upsetting home favorite Robin Soderling in the quarters (7-6 (8), 6-1) and surviving the crucible of a third-set tiebreaker against Jarkko Nieminen in the semis (4-6, 6-4, 7-6 (3)).
The good news for Fed fanatics? He's been just as good. After routing Taylor Dent and rallying past Stanislas Wawrinka, Federer played arguably his best set of the week today against Ivan Ljubicic. The Croat was up a break in the first set but couldn't hold the lead, eventually succumbing in a tiebreaker. The second set was vintage Roger, who dominated it 6-2. A Ljubicic letdown was inevitable, but he was still cracking his groundies. Federer's were just that much better.
It will be a tough loss to take for whoever comes up short tomorrow.
—Ed McGrogan