You know, promotions, even at their hokiest, do seem to work. A couple of weeks ago I was musing about whether year-end championships in general were closer to exhibitions than meaningful events, and how the fact that they come so late in the year, so far removed from the majors, makes them seem less significant than they should be. But then you get the Top 8 players in monkey suits and prop them up next to the prime minister, and suddenly I’m all set for the ATP World Tour Finals.
And they put on a good show. Special court, special lights, and a very deliberate pacing of one singles match per session—two per day—that allows you to focus closely on each one and makes each seem like something of a heavyweight fight (though I’m not sure I would feel satisfied paying for a ticket to see one three-out-of-five-set singles match). The round-robin format, where you go around in circles for a week rather than advancing step by step toward the final, de-emphasizes the ultimate result a little and places it on the quality of the matches themselves. It’s a slightly different way of watching tennis; because everyone hangs around for longer, you focus on the group, rather than any of the individuals, more than normal.
Two groups, that is, each consisting of four players. Let’s take a look at what’s in store in each.
*
Group A (I lobbied for naming it Group Awesome instead, but obviously nobody listens to me): Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Tomas Berdych, Andy Roddick
This section doesn’t start until Monday, when we’ll see Djokovic vs. Berdych during the day, and Nadal vs. Roddick at night.
When Nadal dropped out of Paris, I sort of wrote him off as contender here as well. But looking over all eight guys and where they are at this very late stage in the year, the world No. 1 is looking like a better bet. The surface isn’t too fast, and while he won’t be working with that U.S. Open confidence anymore, he didn’t come into the Open with a ton of momentum and he still won it. Nadal is more rested than the rest, and he’s got, as he will certainly say in the coming days if he already hasn’t, a “special motivation” to do well in London. He’s already said he wants to “erase the memory of last year,” when he lost all six sets and finished dead last in the event.
Nadal won’t have it easy, of course; no one does in the WTF. He opens against Roddick, who beat him in Indian Wells in March. Roddick is coming off two solid weeks in Basel and Paris, and after such an up and down season, he still seems hungry; he’ll also be pumped up to play in the WTF in London, where he’s a crowd favorite, for the first time. Djokovic has a very good record against Nadal on indoor hard courts. But Djokovic was gassed in Paris, and he’ll likely be a little conflicted about this event. How much emotional and physical energy will he want to expend this week, with the Davis Cup final looming? Whatever he says, part of his brain will be on the future. Throw in Berdych, a guy Rafa has owned in recent years, as his third opponent, and I like Nadal’s chances of advancing.
Semifinalists: Nadal, Djokovic
*
Group B: Roger Federer, Andy Murray, Robin Soderling, David Ferrer
The WTF wastes no time getting down to business: It kicks off Sunday afternoon with Murray vs. Soderling, a match that stands a good chance of determining who will grab the semifinal spot here. It’s a tough one to call. Murray was brilliant in Shanghai, and not so brilliant anywhere else. The home crowd can have its negative effects on him; I thought he was little over-amped in his round-robin match with Federer last year. Soderling showed grit in making his way through two Frenchmen in the semis and final in Paris, he’s beaten Murray this season, and he loves the great indoors. Whoever wins, I'd expect this to be a dogfight.
What happens after that? Ferrer is the weak link here, though you know he’ll make the other guys work for it. How about Federer? It’s tough to tell how he’ll be. He’s had a very good fall, but he’s also played a lot, and his last match, against Gael Monfils in Bercy, was a bummer. If his nerve has begun to fail him at match point, is there a time when it will start to fail him earlier? I’ll believe it when I see it. Federer has always been successful at this tournament, and even if he does blow another close one, the format will forgive him. And wouldn’t it be nice to get a shot at his buddy Rafa, after not giving himself that shot in the last three majors?
Last year we saw a surprise winner in Nikolay Davydenko, and we’ve seen a few surprise finalists over the years, including Ferrer and James Blake. Does anyone fit that bill this time? Berdych, while he says he wants to prove to people he actually belongs here, is too much of a long shot, as is Ferrer, despite his previous appearance in the final. But Soderling is not out of the range of possibility. As I said, a lot will depend on that opening match.
Semifinalists: Soderling, Federer
*
Semifinals: Soderling d. Djokovic; Nadal d. Federer
Final: Soderling d. Nadal