Sunshine Symposium: Are Indian Wells and Miami more important for Alcaraz, Djokovic, or Nadal?

With the Sunshine Swing about to get underway—the 2024 BNP Paribas Open draw is set to be revealed on Monday, March 4—our writers and editors tackle the most important questions heading into Indian Wells and Miami.

Next up: Who would benefit most from success in March: Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, or Rafael Nadal?

STEVE TIGNOR: When Carlos Alcaraz won Indian Wells in 2023, he was the game’s most exciting player, and the consensus future of the ATP. A year later, he’ll come in having not won a tournament in nine months, and having been at least temporarily surpassed by Jannik Sinner as the Next Big Thing. Alcaraz won Miami in 2022 and Indian Wells in 2023, so these courts should give him a chance to regain some momentum in 2024. Let’s hope his recent ankle injury doesn’t get in the way.

JOEL DRUCKER: Djokovic’s stellar results of the last 18 months, combined with the exceptionally good health he has enjoyed for many years, make the Sunshine Swing much less important for him than to Rafael Nadal. Does that mean Nadal must fare well at Indian Wells and Miami for his ’24 to progress sharply? No. In fact, I’ll be surprised if Nadal plays both tournaments (he last played Miami seven years ago, losing in the finals to Roger Federer). What matters is that Nadal maintain good health, win at least two or three matches, and build confidence for his beloved clay-court season.

STEPHANIE LIVAUDAIS: While Carlos Alcaraz certainly needs a win in North America, the Sunshine Swing can also set the stage for a major statement from Novak Djokovic. Returning to Indian Wells and Miami for the first time since 2019, he is also returning to one of his most successful stretches of the season: He’s lifted the Indian Wells trophy five times and Miami six times—including four “Sunshine Doubles” in 2011, 2014, 2015 and 2016. Last year, Djokovic fended off the youth surge led by Carlos Alcaraz with a statement win in Cincinnati, and he can do the same this year against two-time Miami finalist Jannik Sinner, who recently won his maiden Grand Slam title on Djokovic’s turf in Australia.

MATT FITZGERALD: Big picture: this duo of events feels most vital for Rafael Nadal. Rafa will undoubtedly want to see that his body can hold up at back-to-back tournaments after his Down Under comeback ended before the Australian Open. He’ll want to gather more data about where he’s at in a competition environment. And he’ll want to get back into the rhythm of all the smaller details that come with being on tour. All of this is, of course, pertinent to the swing everyone is especially waiting for with Rafa: European clay.

JON LEVEY: Djokovic has more Grand Slams than any man and $181+ million in career prize money. Nadal isn’t too far behind. They’re both doing just fine. Carlos Alcaraz isn’t in their neighborhood yet, and has been enduring a mini slump. He hasn’t won a title since Wimbledon, or seen a final since Cincinnati. This year has gotten off to an uninspiring start with just one win against a Top 50 opponent and an ankle injury. He hardly resembles his human highlight reel self. Having lifted the trophy in Indian Wells last year and Miami in 2022, there’s muscle memory that Alcaraz can draw from to do an about-face on his season.

DAVID KANE: Sure, neither Carlos Alcaraz nor Novak Djokovic had had starts to their respective seasons worthy of their immense talent and high standards. But both have proven they can string multiple matches together: Rafael Nadal has yet to do that. Though some will dismiss this swing as a mere warm-up for Nadal's real goal—success on clay—I still think he'll want at least a few matches at tournaments where he's had success in years past. He'll also want to ensure he leaves Miami healthy, regardless of result, so he can give 100% to what may be his last preparation for Roland Garros. In that sense, Indian Wells and Miami could be make or break for Nadal.

ED MCGROGAN: You can make cases for each player, but the strongest lies with Carlos Alcaraz. Djokovic and Nadal have practically nothing left to prove in tennis, and definitely don’t at the Masters level. As for Alcaraz, he’s still looking to win his first title since Wimbledon. As a past champion at both events, any exit—even if it’s in a semis or final—will be notable.

LIYA DAVIDOV: There are very few records left for Novak Djokovic to break, and coming into an Olympic year, there was a sizeable opportunity for a Calendar Year Golden Slam. Falling to Jannik Sinner at the Australian Open, then, was off-course for the 24-time Grand Slam champion, and the spotlight seems to have shifted off Djokovic and over to the next generation. A strong performance in the Sunshine Swing would make him the unequivocal man to beat heading onto European red clay.

PETER BODO: Neither Rafael Nadal nor Novak Djokovic is in any great need of winning either of the upcoming Masters 1000s. Carlos Alcaraz is in a different boat. The 20-year old has penetrated deep into tough draws but he hasn’t won a title since last year, at Wimbledon. He’s 10-2 with one title at each of the upcoming Masters events. These events could be very important to Alcaraz when it comes to career-building.