MELBOURNE—The spirit of former U.S. secretary of defense Donald Rumsfeld seemed to hover over the players’ pre-tournament press conferences here this weekend. According to Rumsfeld's famous formulation, the mysteries of life and war can be classed as “known knowns,” “known unknowns,” and, murkiest of all, “unknown unknowns.” By the time Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, and Andy Murray were finished with their interviews on Saturday, I was starting to think that their main topic of discussion, court speed, belonged in the last category.
When it comes to surface pace, it's like Rummy said: “There are things we don’t know we don’t know.”
After a week or so of practice at Melbourne Park, Nadal, Federer, and Murray all believed they knew how quickly the Plexicushion here was playing. The trouble is, they all knew different things.
“Faster conditions that I ever played here in Australia,” said Nadal, who was worried that his baseline style wouldn't work here this time. “I don’t know why the people who decide to make the conditions that fast.”
By the time Rafa was finished talking about it, he sounded like a poor schmoe ranked No. 150 rather than No. 1. "They decide," he said, "and I'm just a player trying to be competitive from the beginning."
Federer dismissed Nadal's concerns. “It’s a little bit faster than last year,” he said, “But not a whole lot.” Federer even tried to calm his old friend and rival down.
“I don’t know what the big problem is,” Federer said when he heard Rafa's comments. “Really can still play from the baseline, no problem. You can stay back, return from the back. You can do all that stuff if you want to.”
Finally, Murray arrived to set his elders straight.
“Same as last year,” he said without hesitation when asked about the surface speed. “Exactly the same. Same balls. Same speed. Laver is a little bit faster than Hisense.”
Today, the fourth member of the Big 4, Novak Djokovic, echoed both Federer and Murray.
"For me," Djokovic said, "the court, Rod Laver Arena, is the same like last year. Last year it was slightly faster comparing to the years before, but no major difference."
There are, by my calculation, three possible reasons for the discrepancy.
First, Nadal didn’t play in Melbourne in 2013. Last year Federer said basically the same thing about the courts here, that they were a little bit faster than they had been in 2012, especially Laver. Put two years of incremental increase together and the speed may have been a surprise to Rafa.
Second, it’s not that easy to isolate the effects of the court itself. Ball speed, temperature, wind, and the opponent’s shots all have their roles in the pace of play. As Federer said yesterday, “I played the other night against Jo [Tsonga]; things clearly slowed down in the nighttime. It’s not going to be 40 degrees [104 Fahrenheit] at nighttime either, so the ball’s going to slow down.”
Third, each of these players brings his own psychology to the discussion. I’m sure Nadal believes what he says, but it’s not too much of a stretch to think that his internal worry machine is running high as the new season begins. Subconsciously, he can use an obstacle to overcome, and as the current world No. 1, none of his peers fit the bill at the moment.