Are Swiatek and Sabalenka destined? Five questions from the Roland Garros women's draw

“Wide open” is the term many of us have used—or tried to avoid using—to describe a lot of women’s Grand Slam fields over the years. But those aren’t the first two words that come to mind at Roland Garros in 2024. This year it’s the men who don’t have a definite favorite, while the women have two very definite ones: Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka. The world’s top-ranked players have played two straight Masters 1000s on clay. Can they make it a trifecta in Paris—and face off for the first time in a Grand Slam final?

Here’s at look at that question and four others as the women get set to begin in Paris. (CLICK HERE for the women's draw.)

1. Is a Swiatek-Sabalenka final a foregone conclusion?

Not quite. It was supposed to happen last year at Roland Garros, until Karolina Muchova nosed out Sabalenka at the finish line in the semifinals. The top two seeds will likely face at least one serious challenge in their first six matches this time as well.

The most obvious obstacle is No. 4 seed Elena Rybakina. She beat Sabalenka 6-0, 6-3 to start the year on hard courts, and beat Swiatek on clay in Stuttgart last month. In Paris, she’s landed in Sabalenka’s half. Rybakina is coming off an illness that took her out of Rome, but she was a quarterfinalist at RG in 2021. She’ll have her own obstacles to get through before the semis, of course, including, possibly, Zheng Qinwen and Elina Svitolina. But overall, her draw looks good. If she faces Sabalenka in the semis, she might be a 50/50 bet to win that match.

2. Rybakina is in Sabalenka’s half. Who is in Swiatek’s?

Swiatek comes to Paris brimming with confidence, and her draw probably won’t do anything to dim that. But even Peak Iga can face her challenges on clay.

In the second round, she may have a high-profile match against Naomi Osaka. Their head-to-head is 1-1, but Swiatek won their last meeting, two years ago in the Miami final, 6-4, 6-0, and she’ll have a bigger advantage on clay. In the fourth round, Swiatek could play Ekaterina Alexandrova, who beat her in Miami this year. In the quarters, Danielle Collins or Marta Kostyuk, two of the season’s in-form players, may be across the net from her.

But Swiatek will surely be happy that Rybakina landed in Sabalenka’s half, while No. 4 seed Coco Gauff landed in hers. She’s 10-1 against Gauff, and undefeated on clay.

3. Speaking of Coco, what can we expect from her?

Gauff says she felt much better after Rome, where she lost to Swiatek in the semifinals, than she did at the start of that tournament. She thinks the work she’s been doing—on her serve and forehand in particular—is starting to pay off.

Gauff likes clay more than the average American; she made the final in Paris two years ago. But her defensive style, which is still her default mode, does leave her vulnerable against a hot-hitting opponent. There are a few players in her quarter who could, on the right day, belt her off the court: Dayana Yastremska, Beatriz Haddad Maia, 2017 champ Jelena Ostapenko and maybe even Amanda Anisimova, who has been to a semifinal here.

4. Who are the dark horses and seed killers to watch?

Osaka still has the weapons to beat anyone on any day—except, perhaps, Swiatek on clay. Unfortunately for her, that will probably be her second-round opponent.

Collins and Kostyuk have had good seasons, and are scheduled to meet in the third round.

Ostapenko had a resurgent start to the season, but has slipped back to hit-and-miss status of late. She’s in Gauff’s quarter.

Ons Jabeur hasn’t been on anyone’s radar in 2024, but she still likes the clay, and may feel better with no pressure on her shoulders.

Zheng Qinwen finally came out of a post-Australian open funk to make the quarterfinals in Rome.

And how about Madison Keys? A semifinalist in Madrid, and semifinalist at Roland Garros in the past, she may get a shot at Sabalenka in the fourth round.

Who’s going to win?

• To start, some first-round matches of note:
• Yastremska vs. Ajla Tomljanovic
• Ostapenko vs. Jacqueline Christian
• Zheng vs. Alizé Cornet
• Svitolina vs. Karolina Pliskova
• Katie Boulter vs. Paula Badosa

Semifinals: Swiatek d. Ostapenko; Sabalenka d. Rybakina

Final: Swiatek d. Sabalenka