The Czech Republic and Russia will meet in Moscow this weekend for the final women's event of 2011, the Fed Cup final. Peter Bodo has written about the Czechs; here, Steve Tignor on the Russians:
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“Judging by the latest results, I’d say the Czech team look to be the favorites as our girls failed to win any trophies in recent months.”
These encouraging words were spoken today by Russia’s wily old Fed Cup captain, Shamil Tarpischev. While Tarpischev knows his way around a mind game, he also has a point about the upcoming final between his team and the Czech Republic in Moscow. The Czechs will be bringing the No. 2 player in the world, and the one with the hottest hand, Petra Kvitova, to town for two singles matches, as well as the current Wimbledon doubles champion in Kveta Peschke. Meanwhile, Russia’s top player, Vera Zvonareva, won’t be in action due to a shoulder injury. For the Russians, the battle just got a little more uphill.
How can they pull it off? First, they’re at home, where they’ve won 10 straight ties dating back to 2003. This doesn’t mean they’ll have a vociferous, or even full, crowd behind them in Olympic Stadium. But it does mean they get to pick the surface. According to Tarpischev, he’s ordered the slowest court he could find, to combat Kvitova’s strong left-handed serve and superior baseline power. “It will be easier to cope with her speed and vary the height of the ball’s bounce,” Tarpischev says. “The task will be not only to overplay her with the power of the shot, but to beat her tactically as well.”
I’m not sure exactly what that means, but then again Tarpischev has a genius for confusion and surprise. He’s always been a gambler as a captain, willing, if he sees the need, to put all of his eggs in one basket—or all of his country's hopes on one lonely player’s shoulders. His style has won Russia multiple Davis Cups and Fed Cups, but it has also blown up in his face. In the Davis Cup final against the U.S. in 2007, Tarpischev based his grand plan on one thing: Mikhail Youzhny beating James Blake in the second singles rubber. It didn’t happen. The Americans easily clinched it the next day, 3-zip.
Tarpischev has less room up his sleeve this weekend, but he’s already shown his customary, brusquely logical decisiveness. He put the kibosh on Zvonareva playing with a sore shoulder—“It’s useless to play against the Czechs without a solid serve," Tarpischev said with a shrug. "You have to hold your serve first, and Kvitova will hold hers.” With Vera dismissed, Tarpischev has bolstered the team by adding doubles specialist Elena Vesnina and pairing her, at least for now, with young talent Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.
While he could have gone with that young talent in the singles—Pavs is No. 15 in the world, after all—Tarpischev may have made a wise choice by opting for the lower-ranked veteran Maria Kirilenko instead. She’s ranked just 27th and has very little Fed Cup experience, having played in just one previous tie. But she's had a solid season and, just as important, she holds a 2-0 edge on Kvitova in their head-to-head and is 4-1 against her likely Sunday opponent, Lucie Safarova (though Kirilenko hasn’t faced either woman in two years).
A lot rides on Kirilenko’s shoulders, but if you’re looking for a Most Important Player this weekend, it could very well be Russia’s other singles entrant, Svetlana Kuznetsova. The 26-year-old has had a sub-mediocre season, and we all know she can lose to pretty much anyone anytime anywhere. But that’s not quite as true in Fed Cup. A stalwart of championship teams past, Kuzzie is 15-6 in singles and 6-1 in doubles in the team competition. Perhaps like her friend and fellow head case Marat Safin, playing for other people and her country forces Kuznetsova to focus. Her first opponent, on Saturday, will be Safarova. Kuznetsova is up 2-1 in their head-to-head, but they also last played in 2009. For the Russians to win, this one looks like a must—I’m thinking Kuzzie will come through.
However that turns out, she’ll come back the next day against Kvitova. On form and ranking, you have to like Kvitova. The two have never played each other, however, and the young Czech is still prone to walkabouts—Kvitova fought through them in Istanbul; can she keep doing it in Moscow? The final singles match is scheduled to be between Kirilenko and Safarova. As I wrote above, Kirilenko has the advantage in the head to head at 4-1, but they also haven’t faced each other in two years.
Then, in the end, there’s the doubles. Going by the numbers, this one should go the Czechs way. Peschke is No. 2 in the world; her partner, Lucie Hradecka, is 15th. On the other side of the net, Pavlyuchenkova is No. 61 in dubs, and Vesnina is No. 10. Whatever her ranking, though, Vesnina is a talent, and Pavs will be the best overall player on the court. If Tarpischev puts the two of them out there with the Cup on the line, you know that Russia, whatever the wily old captain claims, has a shot.