TENNIS-ITA-WTA-2021

1. Who benefits most from the tournament’s return to its familiar time slot?

When Roland Garros was postponed until late September last year due to the pandemic, pundits theorized that the cool, damp, autumnal conditions—and a much-criticized change to a less-lively ball—would diminish Rafael Nadal’s chances for success. The pundits were correct, but Nadal won anyway.

Tournament officials delayed the tournament’s start again this year, but just by a week this time, in hopes that Covid-restrictions will be less onerous. Sure, the delay plays into Nadal’s preferences for warm weather and bright conditions. But it also boosts the prospects for aggressive ball strikers on both tours, due to the increased premium on offense.

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2. Can Coco Gauff win it all?

The most telling sign that Gauff is ready contend at the Roland Garros was evident in her approach to the final game of her win over Qiang Wang in the Parma final. She stepped up to the line and, without a trace of nerves, closed out the match in a blizzard of emphatic, positive shotmaking. They can’t teach that at the academy.

Not bad for a 17-year-old with just one previous WTA title to her credit. That came in Linz, Austria, where Gauff was a lucky-loser entry. Under absolutely no pressure to win. In Parma, she was seeded third, and handled her status admirably. “Hopefully,” she told the crowd during the trophy presentation, “we can keep this going through the French Open.”

Is it an omen that Gauff defeated former French Open champion Ostapenko in that breakthrough Linz final, to become the youngest WTA player to win a singles title on tour since 2004? Monica Seles is the youngest French Open women’s champion ever, having won it at 16 years, six months.

3. Can anyone halt the Nadal juggernaut?

It’s always possible. But there is no identifiable path to victory for anyone beyond playing lights-out, error-free, offensive tennis. But the 800-pound gorilla in that room is the best-of-five-set format. Nadal has endured plenty of hot streaks by rivals, but he’s never lost a best-of-five-set final on clay, even when they were more common. His career record in all five-setters on clay is 125-2.

There’s another, more subtle factor at work in this equation: the Court Philippe Chatrier. The stadium was built in 1928. All that empty real estate outside the lines is custom-made for Nadal and his radical, rangy game.

“That court, specifically, is so wide and so deep,” former French Open doubles champion Luke Jensen told me recently, “The dimensions are such that you find yourself wondering, ‘How do I get the ball past that stinking guy?’ Then you look at the confidence factor he has in having won so much. It’s all like walking into the coliseum in ancient Rome.”

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When Roland Garros was postponed until late September last year due to the pandemic, pundits theorized that the cool conditions and less-lively ball would diminish Rafa’s chances for success. The pundits were correct, but Nadal won anyway.

4. Is it a mistake to write off Naomi Osaka’s chances?

The world No. 2 has great incentive to overcome her fear of clay this year, because she was right on the bumper of Ash Barty in the rankings going to Europe. But Osaka is in the midst of another disappointing season on red dirt, going just 1-2 in the 1000-level events in Rome and Madrid, while Barty, a finalist in Madrid, significantly padded her lead.

People cite the challenges of the clay game, but learning to slide and other aspects of play germane to the surface aren’t rocket science. Many players who also grew up on hard courts cracked the clay code. Nothing in Osaka’s compact, powerful game is an impediment to winning on clay; her mediocre results are probably driven by a lack of confidence. In Rome, Osaka told reporters: “The comfortability—I'm not sure if I should be telling you this—I'm just not that comfortable on it (clay).”

It’s unlikely Osaka will survive to week two with that mindset.

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5. Who has the better shot at breaking through, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alexander Zverev—or someone else?

This is a close call. Zverev, 24, is a recent Grand Slam finalist (2020 US Open) and a multiple-time Masters champion (most recently, at Madrid). He’s 6’6” but moves well for his size, and is loaded with power (despite recent bouts of the serving yips). Zverev’s recent, three-match winning streak against Nadal—snapped by a quarterfinal loss to the Spaniard in Rome—is a testament to his confidence, as well as his shut-down power.

Tsitsipas, who has slashed his way to the semis at the last two majors, is a speedy and nimble 6’4” with great stamina and a killer serve-plus-one forehand. Like Zverev, Tsitsipas has lost just eight matches this year. But the Greek sensation has salted away 15 more wins (33). Both men seem on the cusp of a breakthrough, but there’s a greater sense of urgency and determination about Tsitsipas these days.

But the hopes of both established, ex-Next Gen stars could be shattered by any of a number of equally young (or younger) players creeping up from behind. There’s fellow Top 10er Andrey Rublev, and two highly touted youths who have been on fire recently, Casper Ruud and Jannik Sinner.

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WATCH: Monte Carlo champion Stefanos Tsitsipas accepts his latest clay-court title, in Lyon.

6. Are we liable to see yet another first-time women’s champion?

Why not? No player has successfully defended her French Open title since Justine Henin in 2007, and no former champion has won since Serena Williams in 2015. But that also means that the field of former champions (there were seven, until Simona Halep withdrew recently due to a calf injury) is dense, experienced and stylistically diverse.

The winner likely will be a repeat champion—with Barty (champion in 2019), Garbine Muguruza (2016) or defending titlist Iga Swiatek all viable options. The contenders for first-time honors include 2020 runner-up Sofia Kenin, Bianca Andreescu (who is healthy again) and spectacular shotmaker Aryna Sabalenka. The Belaruisan has been terrific lately, but can she keep all her raw power under control through two weeks, under changing ambient conditions?

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7. What can Novak Djokovic do to enhance his chances?

Top-ranked Djokovic has to be mentally as well as physically prepared for any eventuality, including the challenge of winning the title without having to beat Nadal. Rafa has such a lock on the French Open that, should he falter, the pressure on the remaining contenders will be intense. And the field has many more dangerous contenders now, than when Roger Federer got his big break with Nadal out of the picture.

In 2009, Robin Soderling’s shocking fourth-round upset of Nadal left Federer, who had already lost three French Open finals and a semifinal to Nadal in Paris, the strong favorite. With a clear path to win the title at last—and thereby complete a career Grand Slam—Federer barely got by Tommy Haas in the fourth round, and nearly lost an epic five-setter to Juan Martin del Potro in the semis. True, Djokovic has already completed his career Grand Slam, but he still trails Nadal and Federer by two titles in the Grand Slam tally. The stakes are sky high.

It is not wise to count out Serena Williams, under any circumstances.

It is not wise to count out Serena Williams, under any circumstances.

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8. Which aging—oft-injured icon—Federer or Serena Williams, has a better chance of going deep?

The answer is Williams, but it’s not because of current form or past history. It’s because Federer has already declared himself out of contention. Following his opening-round loss he took in his tour return in Geneva—his first match on clay since 2019—Federer said, with exquisite logic, “The moment you know you cannot win the French Open that cannot be your goal. Being realistic, whoever thought I could or would win it is wrong.”

Federer, just 1-2 this year due to a lengthy absence, reiterated that he’s using the clay season to prep for Wimbledon. He wants to reacclimate to tour life in the wake of two minor knee surgeries and time lost.

Williams has sometimes won a major without benefit of adequate prep work, but this French Open probably won’t be one of those times. The 23-time Grand Slam champion looked rusty and won just one match between stops in Rome and Parma—that victory coming against a player ranked outside the Top 500. Williams certainly will be all-in in Paris. But, like Federer, her adventures on clay may prove most useful when the tour moves to grass.

9. Is two-time French Open finalist Dominic Thiem ready to see it through on the terre battue?

The 27-year-old hit an emotional wall at last year’s US Open, after making his ultimate Grand Slam breakthrough with a remarkable five-set final-round win. He later told reporters that he “fell in a hole” at the start of this year, lacking motivation, energy and focus on tennis. His mediocre results led him to take a six-week hiatus that ended at the Madrid Masters in mid-May.

“I guess that I'm on the right way, definitely.” Thiem, the two-time runner-up to Nadal at the French Open, said after his loss in the Madrid semis to Zverev. “In general, I feel like I'm back on the right track.”

Although he put up a great fight before losing to Lorenzo Sonego in Rome Thiem’s 6-3, 6-2 loss to Cam Norrie in Lyon rekindled fears that the hard-working Austrian is still struggling with burnout.

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10. Besides Coco and Serena, which other Americans are most likely to contend?

No. 5-ranked Sofia Kenin has the best recent showing at Roland Garros (runner-up, 2020), but she recently dismissed her father as coach and is building a new support team.

Madison Keys, once touted as a surefire Grand Slam champion, is playing poorly. Jen Brady, the highest-ranking U.S. woman (No. 14) below Serena Williams, is also struggling and shopping for a new coach. But take heart, former French Open runner-up Sloane Stephens appears to be on the upswing again.

Among the men, Taylor Fritz is the highest ranked. But he’s never been to the fourth round, of a major, while 36-year old veteran John Isner has reached the fourth round in three of his last six French Opens. Reilly Opelka sparked U.S. hopes with his surprising semifinal finish in Rome, always a good omen for Paris. Fritz, Isner and Opelka are ranked 32, 34 and 35 respectively, and are the only U.S. men in the Top 50.