MELBOURNE—Back in the days when the Big Four occupied the ATP’s Top 4 ranking spots, the draws at the Grand Slams were studies in logical, inescapable repetition. Tournament after tournament, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Andy Murray were placed in separate quarters and thus were heavy favorites to face each other in the semifinals. None of them began the event with a notable competitive advantage over the others.
But Federer, by dropping out of the Top 4 last year—he begins 2014 at No. 6—has thrown the balance of power out of whack. Take the 2014 Australian Open draw, which came out on Thursday. Nadal, Murray, Federer, and No. 5 Juan Martin del Potro are all in the top half, while Djokovic is conspicuously lonely in the bottom half. The top three seeds he might have to face to reach the final are David Ferrer, Tomas Berdych, and Stan Wawrinka. (You could also, I suppose, pin the blame on Ferrer, who has had the gall to move all the way up to No. 3.)
Still, there’s no reason to fiddle with the draws, Wimbledon-style, to bump Federer up. In many ways, this newly illogical system makes the possibilities and permutations at Grand Slams more fun and intriguing—the draws have a chance of meaning more, both positively and negatively, for the top players now. At the same time, if you want the world’s Top 2 players, Nadal and Djokovic, to face roughly the same chance of losing before they reach the final, there's a high probability you’re not going to get it now. As the Aussie begins, the scales are obviously tipped toward Djokovic.
Which should only remind us that, in the end, draws rarely work out the way we imagine they will. After a few rounds, a road that appeared to be filled with obstacles can turn into a wide-open highway to the final. Look at the drastic turnaround that Andy Murray’s prospects went through at Wimbledon last year. One day he had Nadal and Federer in his half, a couple days later he had neither.
So while the men’s draws can seem lopsided to the point of unfairness these days, they still don’t mean a thing until the matches get played—they're still just pieces of paper with lots of lines and names on them. Here’s a look at how this piece of paper may play out at the Australian Open over the next two weeks.