The Big...8?

Through most of the fall, there had been some hope that the ATP’s World Tour Finals would, for once, do what it’s designed to do: Settle the race for No. 1. That hope ended last weekend when Novak Djokovic clinched the top spot after his rival for the position, Roger Federer, pulled out of the Paris Masters.

So we’re left with...what, exactly? What do the World Tour Finals, a week-long round-robin featuring the Top 8 players in the world, mean if No. 1 isn’t at stake? Is it a high-class exhibition? A “fifth major” to close the season? I would say it's a hybrid of those two things. The WTF, which has grown in glamour at its current location, London’s 02 Arena, is a big title for the player who wins it. For the fans who watch it, it’s a celebration of today’s men’s game.

Is it also a sign of things to come? The evidence is mixed. The last two sets of champions and finalists in London (Federer/Nadal in 2010, Federer/Tsonga in 2011) failed to reach the final of the following year’s Australian Open. But last season Federer did use the ranking points from his three-title fall run as a springboard back to the No. 1 spot this summer. Mostly, though, the round-robin format means that the WTF stands alone, a unique test.

This year it seems especially appropriate that the tournament has an eight-player field. The current era has been defined by the Big 4, but in 2012 the four players just below them—David Ferrer, Tomas Berdych, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Juan Martin del Potro—solidified their status as a very strong second tier, with some of the most consistent results of their careers. If they’re still not exactly knocking on the Big 4’s Grand Slam door, they’ve elevated themselves above the rest.

Rafael Nadal is missing, but Janko Tipsarevic, another player who consolidated his new Top 10 status in 2012, makes a deserving replacement. The players are in their round-robin groups, and the matches begin on Monday. Here’s a quick look at those groups, and how they stack up for each of the Elite 8.

Group A

Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Tomas Berdych, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Novak Djokovic

Head to head: vs Berdych 10-1; vs. Murray 9-7; vs. Tsonga 8-6

Of the top two seeds, Djokovic has been handed a tougher group than Federer. He has dominated Berdych, but has been beaten 14 times in total by Murray and Tsonga—though Novak has stopped Jo in all four of their matches in 2012.

Djokovic’s first match after clinching the top spot, a three-set loss to Sam Querrey in Paris, wasn’t a great omen, and he has been dealing with his father’s respitory illness recently. Otherwise, though, he’s been outstanding this fall, and he’s going to want to back up his No. 1 ranking with a title, something he wasn’t able to do at the end of his historic 2011. A WTF champion in 2008, he’s only reached the semifinals once in the three years that the tournament has been in London. Round-robin matches don’t come much bigger than the one he’ll play against Murray this week.

Andy Murray

Head to head: vs. Djokovic 7-9; vs. Berdych 3-4; vs. Tsonga 6-2

It’s a tough group for Djokovic, but it may be even tougher for the hometown favorite. Murray knew he would either get Djoker or Federer, but he can’t be all that happy to see Berdych, his sometime nemesis, here as well. If he gets down early, Muzz won’t have the wind to help him out inside the 02, the way he did in their U.S. Open semifinal this fall.

But like Djokovic, Murray has plenty to play for. He’s always targeted this tournament in his adopted hometown, maybe a little too much: His career WTF record is just 7-5. But he’ll want to put the disappointment of last year, when he only played one match due to a groin strain, behind him. While Federer is the more famous indoor player, Murray is no slouch at it, either. A title here would give Murray, with his Olympic gold and first Grand Slam, a pretty cool 2012 trio.

Tomas Berdych

Head to head: vs. Djokovic 1-10; vs. Murray 4-3; vs. Tsonga 4-2

Berdych, on the other hand, shouldn’t be displeased with his draw. He has winning records against Murray and Tsonga, and despite his terrible head-to-head with Djokovic, it has always seemed like he should be able to hang with him, and, on the right day, knock the ball past him the way he has knocked it past Federer from time to time.

Aside from a summer flicker of burnout, Berdych has had the most stable season of his career. He reached the semis here last year, and he’ll want to build some momentum during the week, because he's going to lead the Czech Republic against Spain in the Davis Cup final the weekend following the WTF. Berdych's crucial match will likely come against Murray.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Head to head: vs. Djokovic 6-8; vs. Murray 2-6; vs. Berdych 2-4

Tsonga, the finalist here last year and a Wimbledon semifinalist in 2012, is the distinct underdog in Group A. He comes in with losing records against all of his opponents. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Frenchman, who lost to Berdych in three sets a couple of weeks ago in the Stockholm final, pull off one upset. But two? That’s what he’s probably going to need. Then again, in his 02 debut in 2011, he came one set away from winning the whole thing.

Semifinalists: Djokovic, Murray

Group B

Roger Federer, David Ferrer, Juan Martin del Potro, Janko Tipsarevic

Roger Federer

Head to head: vs. Ferrer 14-0; vs. del Potro 13-3; vs. Tipsarevic 5-0

Matchup-wise, Federer would have had trouble drawing up a better group for himself. When someone comes in with a 32-3 record against his competition, you have to like his chances of advancing to the semifinals. You have to like them even more when you consider that he’s a six-time WTF winner and a two-time defending champ in London.

Can anything derail the Federer express this week? He did just lose to del Potro in Basel. He may feel like his season peaked at Wimbledon. And no matter how much you love a particular venue, overcoming the Top 8 three years in a row is a big ask. But Federer has defended bigger titles for longer in the past.

David Ferrer

Head to head: vs. Federer 0-14; vs. del Potro 5-2; vs. Tipsarevic 3-1

Ferrer will (a) have some winning momentum coming off his first Masters victory in Paris on Sunday; (b) he, even he, will pay for that effort at some point this week; and (c) he’ll still have the Davis Cup final in Prague to think about. As for his group, Ferru has frustrated del Potro in 2012, beating him in straights in their two meetings. And he frustrated Tipsarevic by stealing their U.S. Open quarterfinal in a fifth-set tiebreaker. He's never frustrated Federer.

Ferrer, a WTF runner-up in 2007, reached the semis last year. Doing it again may require beating del Potro, who has been on a roll indoors, for a third time this season.

Juan Martin del Potro

Head to head: vs. Federer 3-13; vs. Ferrer 2-5; vs. Tipsarevic 3-0

Speaking of Delpo, his appearance in London is a milestone. It will be his first trip back since his 2010 wrist surgery. He should feel welcome; in 2009, shortly before leaving the tour, he reached the final.

This year del Potro has played as well as anyone indoors, and after six defeats in 2012, he recorded a win over Federer last Sunday. The key for the big man this week, though, will likely be breaking his three-match losing streak to another nemesis, Ferrer. The Argentine comes in as the event’s fourth-favorite; a title here would be his biggest win in three years, and would give us lots to talk about going into 2013.

Janko Tipsarevic

Head to head: vs. Federer 0-5; vs. Ferrer 1-3; vs. del Potro 0-3

Technically, Tipsarevic should be “just happy to be here”; if Nadal had been in, he would be out. But the Serb has already gone through that feeling in 2011, when he substituted for an injured Murray and ended up beating his buddy Djokovic for the first time. This year, I can see him doing the same to Ferrer, and playing a spoiler’s role in the process.

Semifinalists: Federer, Del Potro

Semifinals: Federer d. Murray; Djokovic d. Del Potro

Final: Federer vs. Djokovic. If these two play, the signs would be good for Federer. He’s won their last two matches, and he is the acknowledged king of England and king of the great indoors. He spoiled Nadal’s No. 1 season in the final here in 2010. The court may also play a role; in the past, its low bounce has helped Federer, but apparently it's playing slower and higher this time around, which would favor Djokovic. Perhaps most important, Novak wouldn’t want to end a second-straight No. 1 season on a sour note. That might be enough.

Champion: Djokovic