The Change vs. Experience Slam

The last few years on the ATP tour have not been good to dark horses. Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have collected 14 of the last 15 Grand Slams, an unprecedented two-man run of dominance in the Open era, and probably any era. Even during that time, though, it was at least possible to imagine someone—a Fernando Gonzalez here, a Marat Safin there—coming from deep in the nether regions of the draw to steal one away while Rog and Rafa had their backs turned. This time, as hard as I stare at the Aussie Open men’s brackets, and as wild as I let my imagination run—could, um, David Nalbandian win it all?—I just can’t picture anyone other than one of the prohibitive favorites in Melbourne hoisting the trophy in Rod Laver Arena two weeks from now.

That’s because Federer and Nadal have more backup than ever. Last year the Big 2 became the Big 3 when Novak Djokovic won Down Under; this year Andy Murray has joined the ruling class. In fact, Murray has done more than that. To the ire and disbelief of Federer, he has played so well of late that’s he’s become the bookies’ pre-tournament pick to win it all. What’s surprising is that no one who follows the game is remotely surprised by this: over at ESPN.com, five of their six tennis writers picked Murray to win it all. The sixth, Matt Wilansky, picked Nadal, though he said he based his choice on the “logic” that Nadal is still the No. 1 player in the world. In other words, it doesn’t sound like he has his heart in his prediction. As for Federer, no one thinks the 13-time Slam winner and three-time Aussie champ has what it takes.

Is Murray a lock? Is picking Federer or Nadal to win a major now a subversive, just-for-the-hell-of-it, third-party protest choice? Is there someone, anyone, out there who can upset the Big 4’s apple cart? Or is it even a Big 4 anymore? Djokovic, after finishing 2008 on a high note at the Masters Cup, has struggled in his preparation for Melbourne, a fact that only helps Murray’s chances.

These and other questions will be answered soon enough—as they say, that’s why the play the matches. For now, all we have are the draws, our maps to the near future. Let’s take a closer look at how they might play out. Whatever happens, it’s nice to see fans fired up for tennis again—I can’t remember this much anticipation for an Aussie Open before. See what a little time away can do for us?

First Quarter

It’s still odd to see “Nadal, Rafael, ESP” in the No. 1 position in a Grand Slam draw. But, lest we forget, he has earned the right to be there. His relationship to the Aussie Open is a mysterious one. From the start of his career, when he twice lost close duels to Lleyton Hewitt in Melbourne, we’ve always said that he should do well on the slow and lively courts there. While he has steadily improved his results over the years, reaching the semifinals last year, Nadal has never seemed in top form at this point in the season. The last two years he was blown away by Fernando Gonzalez and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, respectively. The courts may be suited to Nadal, but they seem even more suited to other players’ games. If his lack of a title in Oz has shown us anything, it’s that Nadal is a momentum player who is at his best when he’s got a few wins under his belt, not when he’s starting from scratch. Plus, this time he’s coming back from knee tendinitis that kept him out of the Masters Cup and Davis Cup final last November.

Still, “should do well” remains attached to his name in Melbourne Park. This year Nadal will start with the benign Christophe Rochus, and may get one of two terminal underachievers in the third round, Dmitry Tursunov or Tommy Haas—Nadal has never lost a set to either. Then there could be trouble: Gonzalez, Lleyton Hewitt, Richard Gasquet, Gilles Simon, and Gael Monfils are lurking in the rest of his quarter.

Simon is No. 6 in the world and beat Nadal in Madrid last fall. But he’s never been out of the third round at a major, thus making him a highly unreliable pick at this one. While Gonzalez drummed Nadal out of the tournament two years ago, he’s 0-3 against him since and hasn’t won a set. It’s Monfils who could be the most dangerous. He beat Nadal in Doha last week and is one of the few guys outside the Top 4 with the electric athleticism to go all the way. From the sounds of it, he’s been more serious in his preparation than ever—no more acupuncturist, lots of time on the courts. The Frenchman is never a safe bet, but he is a fun one.

First-round match to watch: Gonzalez vs. Hewitt
Semifinalist: Gael Monfils

Second Quarter

Murray has been slotted into Nadal’s half (or is that the other way around?). It’s a good section for him, a good medium-pace court for him, even a good format for him—like we’ve always said about Federer and Nadal at the majors, someone is going to have play their best for three sets to beat him (you know you’ve made it when we start to say that about you). Murray also seems too grounded in the day to day of training right now to think too far ahead. The pressure will be there, but he has the bedrock of self-confidence to fight it off, just as Djokovic did here in 2008.

The next highest seed in the quarter is Tsonga, and after that James Blake. Murray starts with the ancient Andrei Pavel, would get Jurgan Melzer in the third round, and either Radek Stepanek or Fernando Verdasco after that. I think he’ll face Tsonga in the quarters. The Frenchman outhit Murray here in the first round last year, but the Scot’s improved serve will keep that from happening in ’09. He’s always been good at winning difficult points; now he can win the easy ones as well.

Player to watch: Ernests Gulbis. He’s on Tsonga’s side and could conceivably reach the quarters.
Semifinalist: Andy Murray

Third Quarter

Once, not so long ago, our first question when the draw came out was, Which half did Djokovic land in? Not so much anymore. The defending champion, for the record, is in Federer’s half, and in the same quarter as Andy Roddick and David Nalbandian (and Mardy Fish, in case you were wondering). Djoko seems safe to start, though his potential second-round opponent, Jeremy Chardy is an improving shot-maker, and he could face Jarkko Nieminen, who just beat him in Syndey, in the third round. But the two highest seeds in his half of the section are Mathieu and Soderling, hardly what you would call dangerous floaters.

Up top, Roddick might face a tricky third round, either against Philipp Kohlschreiber, who beat him in Oz last year, or his Davis Cup teammate Sam Querrey, who is off to a strong start this month. After that, there’s Nalbandian, who also seems to be in better-than-average form, and who likes these courts—he was two games from the final in 2006. If Roddick is going to make any kind of move, maybe for the rest of his career, it will likely happen in the next six months. He’s got a brand new coach in Larry Stefanki, and historically he gets an early boost when he starts working with someone new.

Player to watch: Marcos Baghdatis. The 2006 finalist is floating in the middle of this section. He’s been hurt, but he’s among family Down Under.
Semifinalist: David Nalbandian

Fourth Quarter

Does Roger Federer suddenly seem old? That’s the feeling I get every time I hear someone say that he’s 27. In every other reality, that is not old—I’m not sure I even had a job by the time I was 27—but in the men’s game right now, with its parade of 20- to 22-year-old sluggers, it sounds positively ancient. I’ve even heard Federer called the “sentimental favorite” in Melbourne. I think it’s a little early to start giving him the Andre Agassi treatment; the guy did win the last major to be contested, like, four months ago.

Still, a glance at his draw won’t make His Eminence feel any younger. Juan-Martin del Potro, 20, is the second-highest seed, and Marin Cilic, also 20, is the fourth. But Federer might get to start against two of his old buddies, Carlos Moya in the second round, and Marat Safin in the third. After that, he could find himself in a tricky duel with his doubles partner, Stan Wawrinka. For all that, though, I still would bet on Federer against anyone here. He hasn’t been on fire this season so far, losing a pair of 6-2 sets to Murray in Doha, but he also says the pressure is off him. That pressure, the “monster” of expectations,” weighed on him in Melbourne last year.

But it won’t be Federer’s frame of mind that determines his fate—he’s seen it all and felt it all on a tennis court by now, and may be beyond trying to prove he’s the best in the world every week. His fate will be determine by something simpler: How consistent he is with his forehand over the two weeks.
Semifinalist: Roger Federer

Semifinals: Murray d. Monfils; Federer d. Nalbandian

Final: Murray vs. Federer would give us intriguing questions on both sides of the net. Can Murray slay the teacher, the father, the master, when it counts? He’s in the same position Djokovic was last year. Both reached their first major finals at the U.S. Open and were taught a straight-set lesson by Federer. Djokovic learned from it and came back to beat him in Melbourne. Will Murray be calmer this time around and not let Federer get out of the gates so quickly? Will keep him from taking over the center of the court so thoroughly?

For Federer, the question may be one of how well he manages his desire to put the kid in his place. Revenge has been sporadic for Federer over his career; certain players can get in his head, and he doesn’t play to send messages to opponents. He didn’t get revenge against Guillermo Cañas in Key Biscayne in 2007; he has occasionally gotten it against Nadal (in part because he’s mostly faced him on clay, but still, the guy bothers Federer); and he didn’t get it against Murray in Doha. On the other hand, he did turn the tables on Djokovic at the U.S. Open.

As far as their games, Murray has had success taking control of points on Federer’s serve; using his own serve well on crucial points; and of generally not giving Federer much to work with from the ground. Plus, Murray is the only guy in the world who can match Federer in terms of quickness, creativity, and net skill.

If this is the final, the pressure will be felt equally—Murray is going for Slam No. 1; Federer for a record-tying No. 14—the motivation levels will be similar, and the playing styles will be as complete as humanly possible. Do you want change, or do you want experience? The world seems to favor change; I may be out of touch, but I don’t think 27 sounds all that old.
Champion: Roger Federer

Melbourne has been almost as hostile to outsiders on the women’s side in recent years. The last five winners Down Under have been named Henin, S. Williams, Mauresmo, S. Williams, and Sharapova, all of whom have spent time at No. 1. You might think this year it would be different, with two of the four, Henin and Sharapova, not in the draw. But Slam winners on the WTA side are always an exclusive society, and while the faces at the top are slightly rearranged this time around—a different Serb is coming in with momentum; a new Russian has thrown her hat in the ring in the last 10 months— they’re also notable for being pretty familiar to us. The most intriguing player who is going for her first Slam title, Jelena Jankovic, is 23 years old, a veteran by any standard in professional tennis.

Because of oddities in the rankings, mostly involving the Williams sisters, one recent phenomenon of the draws at women’s majors has been that of the overloaded half. You might see five legit contenders up top and Svetlana Kuznetsova and someone else on the bottom. This time there’s more balance, though the bottom half is strong, with No. 6 seed Venus Williams, winner of the tour championships last November, slotted to meet Elena Dementieva in the quarters, with the winner to possibly face Serena Williams in the semifinals. Not that the big names on the other side—Jankovic, Ivanovic, Safina—are all that shabby. But whomever comes out of that side will only have to beat one Williams sister for the title. That never hurts.

First Quarter

Jankovic, No. 1 since the fall, will be the top seed at a Slam for the first time. Whether she embraces the moment or wilts in the spotlight—not likely, would you say?—she’s been rewarded with a soft quarter. The next highest seeds are Vera Zvonareva and Nadia Petrova. Zvonareva came on strong at the end of 2008, reaching the final of the season-ender, and Petrova seems to think she can find her old form this year; either of them would make for quality opponents for the Jankovic in the fourth round. And JJ has said she’s been feeling some ill effects of her fitness work with Pat Etcheberry, the same Etcheberry who overtrained Henin and sidelined her a few years ago. But I don’t think this drama queen can complain about the lot she’s drawn to start in Melbourne.
Semifinalist: Jelena Jankovic

Second Quarter

The third and fifth seeds, Safina and Ivanovic, are the headliners here. Each was on fire last spring, when they played each other in the final of the French Open. But Ivanovic cooled off and Safina seemed to hit a ceiling named Williams later in the year. Now the Serb comes in with her coaching situation up in the air, and Safina is no longer the hottest Russian around, that honor belonging to Elena Dementieva so far in 2009.

Could anyone knock these two off track? There are some mild road bumps out there—Alize Cornet, 2008 semifinalist Daniela Hantuchova, the still-skilled Anna Chakvetadze. Most dangerous is 18-year-old Caroline Wozniacki, who has been knocking on the big-upset door for a year or so now. She may be ready to take one of these two down—she’s on Ivanovic’s side—but probably not both.
Semifinalist: Dinara Safina

Third Quarter

Here we have what might be the match of the tournament, and even the decider of the champion, in a potential quarterfinal between Venus and Dementieva. As we’ve said, Venus finished 2008 playing some of the best sustained tennis of her career in Doha, and seems poised for a possible renaissance in ’09. Dementieva won the biggest tournament of her life at the Olympics last season and has already won two tournaments this month, the last of which included a victory over Safina.

I don’t see anyone who will come between them along the way. If they do play, Venus will bring a 7-2 career record in, which includes wins at Wimbledon and the tour championships in 2008.
Semifinalist: Venus Williams

Fourth Quarter

So this is where we find Kuzzie. I thought she had dropped out with an injury, but she remains in the draw for the moment. She’s slotted to face Serena in the quarters, though there are a couple of darkhorses on Kuznetsova’s side, Agnieszka Radwanska and Jheng Zie. Serena’s toughest competition might come from either the 13th seed and still-improving Victoria Azarenka, or an aging but always talented Amelie Mauresmo, who played Serena tight for a set at Wimbledon last year. But Williams has won this tournament three times, and while she’s been hurt (that’s a given by now), she comes in having won the last major and reached the final of the one before that.
Semifinalist: Serena Williams

Semifinals: V. Williams d. S Williams; Jankovic d. Safina

Final: Jankovic vs. Venus would be a final to savor, a combination of first-class athleticism, scrambling, and diva behavior—unlike those nice guys on the men’s side, these two will take no prisoners, especially now that Jankovic has already lost a Slam final and won’t be satisfied just making it to another. They are also extremely evenly matched: Jankovic holds a 5-4 career edge, but their last seven matches have gone to three sets. Each is a counterpuncher at heart, each is tough to finish off, and each can track down just about anything—hence their long, close matches. While I think this is Jankovic’s year to win a Slam, I can’t bet against one of the Williamses in a major final. No one plays the big ones like they do.
Champion: Venus Williams