The Elite - Part 2

In the first post on recent Elite players (post 2000) and former greats, I took a look at players at their peak - represented by an estimate of the maximum number of ATP Ranking points achieved by these players, normalized for the post-2000 system.

Now, every mountaineer will tell you that being at the peak is a very small part of the journey: how you get up, what you do while you're there, and how you come down are part of the complete trip.

I call this a player's career arc.  And in this post, I'm going to look at the career arcs of players whose careers have been completed, plus one.  The past greats of the Open Era, and one present great.

Let's start with two players who defined the 1990s: Sampras and Agassi.  Serve and return.  Hot and cool.  As chance would have it, their career arcs are also fascinatingly different.

Below, I've included a number of charts.  To keep the post a reasonable length, they're in as thumbnails - click on the picture of the chart to get a full screen view in a new window.

Sampras' career arc can be sketched in two lines - up at a 70 degree angle, then a slow glide to a landing at that memorable 2002 US Open final against his great rival.  Agassi breaches the top 10 at a younger age, but it appears until comparatively late in his career (age 24) that he will be a one-Slam wonder, never fully realizing his promise.  Then a burst (take off) to the 6700 point level, multiple slams - but being Agassi, instead of sustained brilliance followed by slow decline, we have a roller coster.  Multiple peaks and valleys, and genuine relevance at the top levels of the game well beyond the point of Sampras' retirement.

Sampras and Agassi peaked in the mid 1990s.  15 years earlier, the iconic rivalry was that of Bjorn Borg and John McEnroe - one against which all mens tennis rivalries are judged.

There's a heartbreaking symmetry in the careers of the two men.  Borg was the earlier to rise to the top, both chronologically and in terms of age.  Both would establish themselves as players with many titles under their belts - and both would flare out.  Borg's career as an elite player ended in an instant as he walked off the court in the US Open, the loser in a final to McEnroe.  The American took a sabbatical rather than a retirement, but the chart shows him as a shadow of his former self - his late peak at age 31 is about the 2500 level, respectable in and of itself but not much higher than the level recorded by Tommy Robredo going into Shanghai in 2006.

Fast forward to the end of the decade, and you have one of the great grass court rivalries: Boris Becker and Stefan Edberg.

(Remember, click on a chart to see it in a popup window)

Once again, there's an interesting symmetry between the two men.  Both would win 6 GS titles; neither would win the French Open; neither would rise far above the 5000 point level.  But Becker's chart more resemble's Agassi's, while Edberg played at a plateau for four years, then retreated gracefully (Edberg was nothing if not graceful).  Becker's final GS title in Melbourne came 11 years after his stunning debut at Wimbledon, close to the maximum span between titles of any of the players we're looking at.

In the Open Era, the maximum separation between GS titles I could find is 12 years - Sampras (USO 1990, USO 2002).  Both Agassi (Wimbledon 1992, AO 2003) and Becker won titles 11 years apart.  Next at 9 years is Connors (Wimbledon 1974, USO 1983).  Just a datapoint for a Swiss fellow who's contemplating the Olympics at Wimbledon in 2012.  (BTW, 12 years is an eyeblink to Ken "Muscles" Rosewall, who won GS titles in 1952 and 1971, 19 years apart.  Rosewall also competed in two finals in 1974 (Wimbledon and the US Open, 22 years after his first title).

Connors' longevity at the top is remarkable, as was his consistency.  And when you say consistency, thoughts also turn to Ivan Lendl, with his eight successive US Open finals.

Connors estimated ATP Ranking points for the ages 23 to 27, the normal prime of a top player's career, reflect his participation in only two GS events in each of those years.  Connors played in two Australian Opens (1973/4 and 1974/5 (W and F): he did not compete at Roland Garros between 1974 and 1978.  In the seven years that followed, 1979-1985, his record in the French Open was S S Q Q Q S S.  So it's reasonable to infer that Connors might, had he participated in the two slams, have had several seasons above the 5000 level, as Lendl did.

Lendl didn't dip below the 4000 level, and was above the 6000 point level (normalized for today's points scoring) multiple times between the ages of 22 and 30.  The charts could be used to make an argument that Lendl sustained the highest level for the longest period in the Open Era.

The last two Open Era former greats - or maybe great and a half - I'll introduce both - made their mark first at the French Open: Mats Wilander and Jim Courier.

Wilander's 1982 Roland Garros title was his first ATP title - achieved before he turned 18.  His last would be in 1988, when he finished the year world no 1: but he would never reach a GS or Masters final after that year, and would end 1989 and 1990 ranked 12th, then 41st.  Courier had a longer apprenticeship, but between 1991 and 1993 he played in 7 GS finals (winning 4), two YECs (runner up both times) and won 5 Masters Series titles.  Then, like Wilander after 1988, Courier stopped making the finals of the biggest tournaments.

So - ten former greats.  I'm writing this on the day that today's undisputed current great, Roger Federer, won his 7th title of the year - although there was some muttering from the Tribe that this was not, perhaps, vintage of the highest quality.

So, who does Federer resemble - at least in terms of his career arc?  Turns out (as one might expect), the Swiss is very much his own man.

Federer's 12 GS titles put him (at least) into the conversation with Borg and Sampras as a candidate for tennis' Valhalla.  His chase for the French Open in some respects has come to resemble Borg's quest for the US Open, and Lendl's doomed hunt for a Wimbledon crown.

Taking a look at each of the charts, we see several different patterns: Sampras' rise and glide, Agassi's roller coaster, Courier's sharp plateau, McEnroe's mid career burnout.  But there are similarities - particularly the sharp take-off each player achieved as they rocketed to the 5000 point level (it's there in Agassi's chart, unusually late - beginning with the US summer hard court season of 1994 when Agassi took Toronto and the US Open at 24).  This take-off is the signature of The Elite - one we can see as it happens.

The concluding look at career arcs will cover some of the greats and maybe greats of the post-2000 decade.  I'll look at rising (or risen) stars like Nadal and Djokovic, and players who made waves at the start of the decade - Safin, Hewitt, Roddick and Ferrero.  Stay tuned.

-- Andrew

(Thanks again to Rosangel for the picture and friendly counsel)