The fall season has always been problematic in tennis. It’s the ideal off-season, although I’m not sure those who live in places where the weather is balmy from September through November would agree. That’s the trouble when a game is as truly international as tennis; it’s always summer somewhere, and if it’s a place where tennis has some traction with the population, then the rallying cry is, “Game on!”
Still, if there’s a logical time to take a break, it’s the fall. That’s true for everyone but the players, but I wouldn’t shed too many tears on their behalf. For them, fall is a significant income and ranking points opportunity, fatigue or injury or homesickness be danged.
Let’s begin this year’s fall forecast with a look at five compelling issues likely to be raised and resolved over the next few months, until the tour season concludes in London with the ATP World Tour Finals.
1. Will the fall events feature fully competitive draws?
Over time, the ATP (and WTA—more about the women tomorrow) has put a lot of energy into developing the Asian circuit and sustaining the European indoor events. At the same time, top players have balked at playing a loaded schedule in the fall.
The ATP is currently very lucky to have four Grand Slam champions (read: ticket sellers and headline-makers) at the top of the game, and they amiably make an effort to spread the wealth and give credibility to the fall results. But among the top four, only Andy Murray played more than three ATP tournaments after the U.S. Open in 2011 (including the World Tour Finals, he played five); the others all played just three, and only Paris boasted the presence of three of the top four.
In other words, the talent is being spread very thin, even though these are boom times in the men’s game. And with Rafael Nadal still out of action with bad knees, three will have to do the work of four this fall.
It’s not a particularly good sign that Roger Federer chose to skip the entire Asian swing last fall, especially because it must seem to him to have been a very wise decision, given the way he kicked his game into another gear when he did return to play—he won Basel, Paris and the World Tour Finals last year. He’s entered in Shanghai this year; we’ll see if he actually makes it there.
So the question lingers: Will the fall ever be as credible as, say, the European spring clay season?
2. Can Murray repeat his 2011 fall performance?
A year ago, today’s “Big Four” was really the big “Three-and-a-Half,” because Murray had yet to win a major. Now he has an Olympic gold medal and a Grand Slam title, earned at the U.S. Open just a few weeks ago. Murray is No. 3 in the rankings, but still about 2,000 ranking points behind No. 2 Novak Djokovic and more than 3,000 shy of No. 1 Federer, who has 11,805.
With Djokovic considerably closer to Federer than Murray is to the Serb, it’s pretty clear that the Scot will have to do very well in the fall just to keep pace with the two men ranked ahead of him. He has 1,750 points to defend because he’s the defending champion of Bangkok, Tokyo, and Shanghai.
Murray has his work cut out, but then that’s the cost of running with the big dogs.
3. Will we see a new autumn hero emerge?
Every shortcoming in the game also represents someone else’s opportunity, and the fall season is a great example of that. It isn’t just the top players who are tired and ready for a break after the U.S. Open.
The wear and tear of a 10-month tour is hard on everyone, perhaps even more so on those ambitious go-getters who end up playing 30 or so tournaments a year (Nicolas Almagro has already logged a whopping 28 this year—Djokovic, for comparison, has played 18). And that just makes them even more vulnerable.
Last year, Janko Tipsarevic took his game to a new level in the fall, and to his credit, he’s kept there so far. Although already 28, Tipsarevic didn’t win his first tournament until last fall in Kuala Lumpur (defeating Marcos Baghdatis). He followed that with a title in Moscow (defeating Viktor Troicki), and he made the finals in St. Petersburg (losing to Marin Cilic). That was the foundation for his leap into the Top 10 this April, an honor he justified by holding that position through the year (he’s currently No. 9).
Top candidates for a Janko-like performance in 2012: Richard Gasquet, Milos Raonic, Gilles Simon (a former fall standout), Tommy Haas, Sam Querrey.
4. Can any member of the BIG three assert himself?
It says something about Juan Martin del Potro, Tomas Berdych, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, those three physical specimens (Tsonga, the smallest among them, is 6’2” and weights over 200 lbs.), that their names don’t appear in the previous item. Their power, size, and durability (although Tsonga has been injury prone) ought to enable them to feast in the fall. But with the mild exception of Tsonga in 2011, they tend to snack and nibble.
Del Potro had a so-so fall last year; his best results were a final in Vienna (losing to Tsonga) and a semi in Valencia (losing to Marcel Granollers), but he skipped the two big Masters 1000 events. Berdych did better; he won the ATP 500 in Beijing (defeating Cilic), and he made the semis of Paris (losing to Federer) and the World Tour Finals (losing to Tsonga).
Tsonga had the best fall of the three. He won Metz (defeating Ivan Ljubicic) and Vienna (defeating del Potro), and made the finals of the Paris Masters and World Tour Finals. His only disappointments were a second-round/first-match loss to Kei Nishikori at the Shanghai Masters. That’s a good record, but it’s not like he caught fire in the fall and used it the way Simon and Tipsarevic have in the past to vault to the next level.
Del Potro has a bad left wrist, so don’t expect too much from him. Berdych and Tsonga have each played 19 events aready. Does either of them have enough gas in the tank and sufficient will to tear it up in the fall?
5. WWND? (What Will Nole Do?)
Djokovic’s ego must be somewhat bruised. He was unable to recapture the No. 1 ranking stripped away by Federer after Wimbledon, he failed to complete his two main objectives for the year (a title at Roland Garros and an Olympic gold medal), and Andy Murray took away his U.S. Open title.
Over the years, Djokovic has won half a dozen titles in the fall (including the World Tour Finals, then called the Tennis Masters Cup), most recently in 2010 (Beijing). The hard courts, indoors or outside, suit him. But he’s had an eventful year already, and he doesn’t need the minor titles, or the money.
On the other hand. . . given that Federer is penciled in for just one Asian tournament (Shanghai), Nadal’s status is still uncertain, and Djokovic has nothing to defend until Basel, he could pick up a lot of lost ground with a strong fall. Remember, he’s just about 1,400 points behind Federer in the rankings, and Federer has much to defend come November.
Will Djokovic make a big push in an attempt to snatch the year-end No. 1 ranking from Federer, and end up in that coveted position for the second year in a row? He’s entered in the China Open and the two fall Masters (Shanghai and Paris); a sweep would net him 2500 ranking points. And dare we raise the question of wild cards into one or more smaller events, should the gap with Federer grow even more narrow? It would be fun to examine the bonus incentives in his various endorsement contracts before we make a guess on that one. . .
Federer could pad his ranking if he does well at Shanghai (he skipped it last year), but so far it looks like he has to win everything else he plays the rest of the year, including the World Tour Finals, if he hopes to keep his ranking points at their present level.
To me, that’s the most intriguing question as we look to the fall—will Djokovic make a big push, and how will the reigning No. 1 react to that?
There’s never a bad time for a hero.