The Grandest Slam: How big would Rafa vs. Nole be for the title chase?

Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer are all vying to end their careers with the most majors ever for a male player, and they’re all going to be in the hunt for another at Roland Garros. Could this year’s French Open reshape men’s tennis history? This week, we give early answers to four questions surrounding their three-way showdown in Paris.

Thus far, the most significant match in the GOAT competition was Federer’s five-set win over Nadal in the 2017 Australian Open final. At the time, Federer had 17 majors, and Nadal 14. When Nadal went up 3–1 in the fifth set, it looked as if he would cut his Slam deficit to two; instead, Federer’s 11th-hour comeback expanded his lead to four. Squeaking out that final set in Melbourne may be enough to keep Roger ahead of Rafa for good.

A similarly momentous swing would be in play if Nadal, who has 17 Slams, and Djokovic, who has 15, were to meet in the Roland Garros final.

A Djokovic win would pull him to within one major of Nadal, and four of Federer. Couple that with Novak’s wins over Rafa at Wimbledon last year, and the Australian Open this year, and Nadal might begin to wonder where his next win over Djokovic at a Slam is going to come. The rest of the tour might begin to wonder if the Serb will be as good in his 30s as he was in his late-20s.

“If Novak stays healthy, there’s no reason he can’t dominate for the next two or three years,” says Tennis Channel commentator Paul Annacone. “If you win a couple majors a year, that’s amazing for most people, but I think it’s very realistic for Novak.”

Conversely, a Nadal victory would leave him three Slams ahead of Djokovic, and just two behind Federer. It would become more conceivable that Rafa, who will turn 33 in June, could catch Federer at 20 majors without having to win any more outside of Paris. Just as important, it would rob Djokovic of the momentum—the aura of historical inevitability—that he has enjoyed at the majors recently.

Of course, neither Djokovic nor Nadal has looked unbeatable this spring. But they remain the No. 1 and 2 players in the world, and whatever they’ve done in smaller events over the last year, they’ve brought their best to the Grand Slams.

**Monday, April 29: Introduction

Tuesday, April 30: If Djokovic and Nadal meet in the Roland Garros final, how crucial would it be for the Grand Slam title chase?

Wednesday, May 1: Could someone other than Nadal be favored at Roland Garros?

Thursday, May 2: What factor might Federer play?

Friday, May 3: Whatever the result is in Paris, is Djokovic destined to pass Nadal and Federer in majors?**