The Pick: Ashleigh Barty vs. Shelby Rogers, Australian Open 4th round

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change

American Shelby Rogers will take on top-seeded Ashleigh Barty in a rematch of last week’s Yarra Valley Classic quarterfinal. Had it not been for a momentum-halting match tie-break in lieu of a third set, Rogers may have taken out the world No. 1. In the end, Barty defeated Rogers, 7-5, 2-6, 10-4, in large part due to her ability to consistently frustrate Rogers with changes of spin and pace.

On Friday, Rogers survived an 0-3 first-set deficit to defeat the hard-hitting Anett Kontaveit, ultimately winning 6-4, 6-3. Barty dispatched Ekaterina Alexandrova in more routine fashion, 6-2, 6-4.

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Barty is a sizable -335 favorite with a 6-4, 6-3 projected scoreline. But Rogers has been playing well Down Under, earning wins over Petra Martic, Fiona Ferro and Kontaveit. She’s proven she has the tools to trouble Barty, and will likely be hungry for some revenge after last week’s defeat.

The quick courts in Melbourne have been rewarding Rogers’ pace, and she’s been finishing many points at the net.

As they played just over a week ago, Rogers will be more used to Barty’s unique game style, but that doesn’t mean she’ll enjoy it. On set point, Barty coaxes the error from Rogers with a slow, floating slice.

Here, Barty takes pace off the forehand, and gains control of the rally with a hard, skidding slice.

Despite her height, Barty owns one of the best first serves in the world. Expect Rogers to crush her return when given a look at a second serve.

In the end, Barty should prevail in a tightly contested affair. Barty is the pick, but Rogers should keep it close, and cover her +4.5 game spread.

The Pick: Barty to win; Rogers +4.5 games

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