The Pick: Casper Ruud v. Tommy Paul, Australian Open second round

On a day of match-ups full of massive favorites, the third-ever clash between Tommy Paul and Casper Ruud promises to be an exciting encounter. Their prior two meetings have gone the distance, with Paul winning at the 2017 Citi Open, while Ruud prevailed last fall at the French Open.

In his first round, Paul took care of a free-falling Nikoloz Basilashvili, 6-4, 7-6 (0), 6-4; Ruud led Jordan Thompson by two sets before the Aussie pulled the plug, citing a neck injury. Not much separates these two talented players and their fearsome forehands, so it’s safe to expect a close and physical match.

Thursday temperatures in Melbourne are expected to exceed 90 degrees Fahrenheit. Barring a straight-set win for either player, conditioning will likely play a factor, especially given Ruud's impeccable defense.

It’s in Paul’s best interest to shorten the points; luckily for him, he has the weapons to do so.

In addition to avoiding long rallies, Paul must find the Ruud backhand. The Norwegian typically plays it safe and crosscourt from that wing, which will open Paul's fantastic mid-court forehand.

Ruud needs to test Paul’s fitness. Look for him to stretch Paul to the corners with his crosscourt and inside-out forehands. He should only pull the trigger when the shot is there, like he does below.

While you would think Paul owns a slight advantage against Ruud on a hard court, remember that clay is arguably the American’s best surface. According to the oddsmakers, Ruud is a slight -140 favorite, and should outlast Paul in a marathon second-round match in Melbourne.

The Pick: Casper Ruud