It’s not often you have a player with five career clay-court titles listed as an underdog against a player with zero, but that’s the case as Cristian Garin takes on second-seeded Daniil Medvedev in Madrid. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Garin is listed as a +110 underdog with a chance to score one of the biggest wins of his career.

Despite his disdain for the surface, Medvedev showed flashes of dirt-balling brilliance when he reached the semis of Monte Carlo in 2019—defeating  Stefanos Tsitsipas and Novak Djokovic along the way. But if you'd ask him, he would probably tell you that was a fluke, as he was seen cursing the clay in his Wednesday win over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.

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Perhaps his anti-clay stance is an act intended to have opponents underestimate him; if so, it’s a foolish one, as a win over the world No. 2 matters to just about every player, no matter the surface.

Look for Garin to dig deep and try to frustrate the irascible Russian with consistency and defense. Medvedev is one of the more patient players on tour, but not on clay.

The Chilean’s best bet is to will his way to victory with patience, and big targets, something he is more than comfortable doing.

The Pick: Daniil Medvedev vs. Cristian Garin, ATP Madrid third round

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After Wednesday, it’d be wise for Garin to bring Medvedev forward, as the Russian went 0/7 in net attempts to start his match.

The Pick: Daniil Medvedev vs. Cristian Garin, ATP Madrid third round

This match is a toss-up, but from a betting perspective, it’s a good opportunity to bet on an underdog who quite literally makes his money during the clay-court season, against a player who can’t wait for it to end.

The Pick: Cristian Garin