The Pick RG R4 Medvedev Cilic

World No. 2 Daniil Medvedev is fresh off one of the best weeks on clay that he has ever had. The Russian, who has made it clear that this surface isn’t his favorite, has earned straight-set wins in each of his three victories at Roland Garros thus far. His draw wasn’t exactly easy either, as he had to go through clay-court specialists like Facundo Bagnis and Laslo Djere, and he then earned an impressive win over world No. 31 Miomir Kecmanovic. Now, Medvedev will look to secure his spot in the quarterfinals by earning a win over world No. 23 Marin Cilic.

While Medvedev is looking dangerous right now, it’s hard not to be impressed by the way Cilic has performed. The Croatian easily handled his business in a straight-set win against Attila Balazs in the opening round here. Then, Cilic picked up a good win in a 4-6, 6-4, 6-2, 6-3 victory over world No. 57 Martin Fucsovics. And Cilic followed it up by defeating world No. 158 Gilles Simon in just under two hours on Saturday. It might not be nine sets in a row like Medvedev won, but nine out of 10 isn’t bad.

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All in all, these two players share some similarities on the court. Sure, Medvedev is a far superior athlete and mover, but both players possess big serves and the ability to win points from the baseline. With that in mind, it’s hard not to see these two playing a tiebreaker or two over the course of a best-of-five match. And if that’s the case, that randomness should allow Cilic to snag at least a set here. These two played a five-setter against one another at Wimbledon last year, when the Russian emerged with a 6-7 (3), 3-6, 6-3, 6-3 6-2 in three hours and 42 minutes. It wouldn’t be too surprising if Cilic found a way to push him to a decider again.

Medvedev said before the tournament that he is a bit more focused on turning in a good result at the French Open this year. We were skeptical of that earlier in the tournament, as he has just been so disappointing here in the past. However, it’s hard to doubt him at this point, and he’s deservedly a -320 favorite in this match. And while we do think the Russian will ultimately advance, he should experience some hiccups along the way. That’s why we’re backing Cilic to win at least a set, even if the odds aren’t all that great.

The Pick: Cilic To Win A Set (-190)