The Pick: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Daniil Medvedev, US Open semifinal

Thanks to a mid-match default in the quarterfinal from rising star Carlos Alcaraz, Felix Auger-Aliassime is into his first major semifinal. After surviving a four-set, three-tiebreak scare in his opening-round win over Evgeny Donskoy, the Canadian has found an effective and calm demeanor on court. HIs typically high unforced error rate has subsided, and his serve has been phenomenal. For his efforts, he will face Daniil Medvedev, who has advanced to his third consecutive US Open semifinal round.

In his brief career, Medvedev has always peaked at the US Open. Not only does he enjoy scrambling around the largest tennis stadium in the world, but the ultra-quick surface is tailor-made for his flat, powerful and consistent game.

According to the oddsmakers, the Russian is listed as a -600 favorite and projected to win by six total games. Medvedev and Auger-Aliassime have played once before, at the 2018 Rogers Cup. The Canadian led 4-1 in the third set, but Medvedev clawed his way back, ultimately winning the match 3-6, 6-4, 7-6 (9-7). FAA has all the tools to pull the upset this time around, but he’ll need to tighten up his unforced error count, as Medvedev is as stingy as they come.

From a betting perspective, this one is tough. At his best FAA, can hang with anyone, but you can never be sure which version will show up, and his past history in big matches—he's winless in eight ATP finals attempts—should not instill confidence when backing him.

Medvedev loves playing at the US Open and his experience should propel him to victory, so I will be looking to place a minimum stake bet on the Russian to win by 1.5 sets.

The Pick: Daniil Medvedev to win by 1.5 sets (-170)