The Pick: Karen Khachanov vs. Frances Tiafoe, Wimbledon third round

The American appears to be having the time of his life at SW19; will it result in another win?

Published Jul 01, 2021

MATCH POINT: F. Tiafoe def. S. Tsitsipas; Wimbledon 1R

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The Frances Tiafoe 2021 Wimbledon revenge tour will continue on Friday, as the red-hot American takes on Karen Khachanov for a spot in the fourth round. Prior to the tournament, the 23-year-old had never beaten Stefanos Tsitispas nor Vasek Pospisil, but that didn’t stop him from beating both players in six consecutive—and extremely convincing—sets. At Wimbledon in 2018, Tiafoe led Khachanov two sets to none before running out of gas, ultimately falling 4-6, 4-6, 7-6, 6-2, 6-1.

Tiafoe’s focus and discipline have been on another level this week. He is very much a momentum player, and appears to have picked up a full head of steam. He’s tightened up the backswing on his return, and the slick grass has made his above-average serve even better. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the American is a -138 favorite over Khachanov, and projected to win by 1.5 total games.

It’s always a little scary betting Tiafoe, though, and equally unnerving picking against Khachanov. With a supreme serving day, the Russian can render his opponents fairly helpless. But I believe Tiafoe has the edge in this matchup for two reasons. The first reason is that grass helps Tiafoe’s game. He has unnaturally quick hands, which are imperative for success on grass.

“Grass just helps my game," Tiafoe said. "It forces me to play the right way. It forces me to play super aggressive. It forces me to be off my front foot on both sides, it forces me to come to the net, because otherwise you're vulnerable.”

The second, and perhaps most important reason, has to do with Khachanov’s technique on his forehand.

While Khachanov’s forehand is very good, it features one of the larger take-backs in the men’s game.

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Khachanov is most effective when given time to wind up his humongous backswing. If Tiafoe can rush him to his forehand side, he should elicit some unforced errors.

Here, Khachanov is late on his forehand off a relatively routine Berrettini backhand.

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In his past two matches, Tiafoe was able to direct the vast majority of shots to both Tsitsipas and Pospisil’s much weaker backhands. If he aims for that strategy again he will be in trouble, as Khachanov’s backhand down the line is his most effective shot.

Don't expect another straight-set victory for the American, but he appears to be in a phenomenal place mentally, and I feel quite comfortable backing him once again.

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