The Pick: Jenson Brooksby vs. Aslan Karatsev, US Open third round

The Jenson Brooksby experience has arrived in New York, and it’s been even better than advertised. Part of me wants to keep him a secret, as oddsmakers continue to criminally underestimate his ability. As far as I'm concerned, the less people who bet on him, the better.

But this article has two goals in mind—to help people win money, and to grow the game of tennis—and no player has been more profitable for tennis bettors, or more enjoyable to watch this year, than Brooksby. The 20-year-old is 40-9 across all professional levels in 2021, and is one very winnable match away from his maiden US Open fourth round.

The former Baylor Bear demoralized Taylor Fritz in a four-hour match-of-the-tournament candidate on Thursday night, routinely coming up with some of the best shots you’ll ever see.

Brooksby reminds me of Heath Ledger’s character in A Knight’s Tale. Ledger played a peasant squire who feigned nobility in order to joust in the big leagues. When a jousting expert was asked to explain what made Ledger’s character so effective with a horse and a lance, he said this: “His technique is nonexistent, his style is rudimentary, but still, he is fearless.”

Brooksby’s strokes look like they came straight out of a public park with weeds growing from the cracks in the court, yet he is routinely dismantling some of the best players in the world. In the past two months he’s beaten Kevin Anderson, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Frances Tiafoe—all in straight-sets.

On Saturday, Brooksby will get a chance to avenge his Roland Garros loss to fellow fast-riser Aslan Karatsev. The oddsmakers have clearly overreacted to the Russian’s 6-3, 6-4, 6-4, victory, and list the American as a slight -115 favorite. It seems they didn’t take into account that Roland Garros was Brooksby’s first-ever ATP tournament on red clay. Of course the California kid was going to lose to one of the world’s hottest players in that setting.

After his performance on Thursday I expected Brooksby to be at least a -250 favorite, which makes this the most attackable line in recent memory.

While Karatsev has the timing and power to overwhelm the American, his unforced error rate in recent months has been far too high. Now that Brooksby has Karatsev on his preferred surface, in front of a pro-American crowd, a beatdown is entirely possible. The feeling Brooksby provides bettors when backing him is one of a kind, and I can’t recommend it enough. Win or lose, he will empty the tank and exhaust every possible strategy.

The first rule of sports betting is only bet what you are comfortable losing. That said, I will not only be backing Brooksby to win the match at -115, I will also take him to defeat Karatsev in straight sets, which pays nearly 3:1 odds. Take Brooksby to the bank on Saturday.

The Pick: Jenson Brooksby