The Pick: Karolina Pliskova vs. Karolina Muchova, AO third round

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change

Ranked highest among a deep Czech contingent, Karolina Pliskova will face off in an intriguing third-round battle against Karolina Muchova, ranked fourth from their country. Pliskova dodged a bullet in her second-round win against Danielle Collins, posting a decisive 7-5, 6-2 scoreline to avoid a second loss to Collins in the space of a week, and another early round exit at the majors.

Predicting matches based on Pliskova’s confidence level is a fool’s errand, but the world No. 6 should be swinging freely. She and Muchova are great friends and practiced together every day during their two-week quarantine. Like Collins, there would be no shame in losing to an athlete of Muchova’s caliber, but her familiarity with her opponent should pay dividends.

At the 2019 Australian Open, Pliskova defeated Muchova, 6-3, 6-2, but lost their next and most recent meeting later that year in a Wimbledon classic, 4-6, 7-5, 13-11. So far, both Muchova and Pliskova have blitzed their first two opponents without dropping a set.

A confident Pliskova could make quick work of Muchova. Due the ultra-quick courts, her serve becomes even more of an advantage.

Pliskova loves changing direction down the line.Last time they played in Melbourne, in 2019, it was one of the keys to her victory.

Muchova must rely on her tremendous athleticism to extend the points, but when given any opportunity, she must take control, like she does below.

According to the oddsmakers, this match is basically a toss-up, with Pliskova listed as a -145 favorite. I don’t want to read into Pliskova’s victory over Collins too much, but after avoiding a potential disaster Down Under, expect the 6’1” Czech powerhouse to play fearless, free-swinging tennis, and cruise through her extremely skilled compatriot without too much trouble.

The Pick: Karolina Pliskova