The Pick: Lorenzo Musetti vs. Reilly Opelka, US Open second round

Betting game spreads on elite servers like Reilly Opelka are always a little risky. In theory, the seven-footer could beat Lorenzo Musetti on Thursday in three tie-break sets without ever leaving his comfort zone. But with just a -4.5 game spread, Opelka is one the most appetizing bets in recent memory.

A lot of it has to do with Opelka’s current form. He typically produces his best results on the quick North American hard courts. He reached the final in Toronto, and defeated Kwon Soon-woo in three relatively easy sets on Tuesday. Opelka loves the atmosphere in New York and enjoys the lively and more malleable Wilson US Open balls.

Most importantly, Opelka’s Italian opponent has been objectively subpar—at least for his hyped up standards—during the hard-court season. Musetti, who lost his Tokyo Olympics, Cincinnati (qualifying) and Winston-Salem openers prior to his arrival in Queens, came through against an erratic Emilio Nava. While the 6-7 (5), 6-4, 6-1, 6-3 scoreline indicates a solid closing effort from Musetti, the promising young American coughed up 56 unforced errors, many of which hit the back fence in the air.

Musetti first-serve is not a strength, and his second-serve is a liability. He’ll need to serve an extremely high percentage to avoid Opelka taking target practice on his second serves.

Musetti also opts for primarily a chip return on his first-serve return. It’s a fine play against opponents without serious firepower, but it will likely result in plenty of high-bouncing, slow-moving mid court forehand looks for the American.

If Musetti wins, it will likely take an incredible performance coupled with an equally poor showing from Opelka. Please only bet what you are comfortable losing, but the big fella is in a fantastic spot on Thursday, as Musetti will be facing an uphill battle due to the massive free point disparity.

The Pick: Reilly Opelka -4.5