The Pick: Maria Sakkari vs. Iga Swiatek, WTA Ostrava semifinal

Maria Sakkari is a tricky player to bet on. Just when you think she’s figured it all out, she’ll turn in some funky performances, much like her unfortunate dud in the semifinals of the US Open. Perhaps nobody was beating Emma Raducanu that week, but the Greek never even gave herself a chance in the match, which felt like a forgone conclusion through its entirety.

But Sakkari is still winning, and she’ll face Iga Swiatek in the semifinals of Ostrava on Saturday morning. According to the oddsmakers, Swiatek is listed as a -140 favorite and projected to win by two games. The Pole has been hit or miss outside of clay in her brief career, but there’s no doubt she’s the more talented player of the two.

Both players are capable of an extremely high level, yet this over/under total is set at just 21 games. A close two setter could get the job done, while a three set match would virtually guarantee victory.

Sakkari defeated Swiatek in their only meeting at this year’s French Open, so revenge should be on the Pole’s mind. But If Sakkari can beat Swiatek on clay, she can certainly do so on a hard court. UTR’s new Insights tool gives the Greek a very slight advantage, which makes her +2 game handicap interesting as well.

Given the unpredictability of this first matchup on an indoor hard court I am going to side with the over 21 game total and hope for a competitive match.

The Pick: Over 21 games