The Pick: Matteo Berrettini vs. Félix Auger-Aliassime, ATP Cincinnati third round

Is Félix Auger-Aliassime getting hot? It’s been said before—and it's typically followed by a head-scratching loss—but the Canadian has looked rock-solid in Cincinnati. After falling down 2-4 in the first set against Marton Fucsovics, FAA began to dominate, ultimately winning, 7-6 (0), 6-3.

That scoreline might not seem overwhelming, but Auger-Aliassime generated 18 break point opportunities for himself, and earned another 13 in his Tuesday win over a very in-form Karen Khachanov.

A rematch against Matteo Berrettini awaits in the third round, and according to the oddsmakers, the Wimbledon finalist is a -174 favorite and projected to win by two total games. Berrettini survived a tough three-setter against Albert Ramos-Vinolas on Tuesday, slowly but surely finding his dominant brand of tennis as the match evolved.

But Berrettini did not play particularly well. Understandably, he was a bit rusty, but he resorted to his slice a little too early and a little too often. His slice is polished and effective, but Auger-Aliassime will enjoy the extra time he’ll get to run around and find his forehand.

Most bets on the Canadian this year have been a hope and a prayer, as his unforced error rate is notoriously astronomical. That said, I am a big fan of the revenge angle in a one-on-one sport like tennis, and while Berrettini was celebrating his first major final—and recovering from a thigh injury—FAA has been grinding in the hot and humid North American hardcourt swing.

Any bets on the Canadian should obviously be on the smaller side, but the value is there. I can’t argue against FAA’s moneyline at +140, or his game spread of +1.5 at +100.

The Pick: Felix Auger-Aliassime +1.5