The Pick: Nick Kyrgios v. Ugo Humbert, Australian Open round 2

At the end of 2020, there’s no question Ugo Humbert would have been heavily favored to beat Nick Kyrgios, but after a strangely flat start Down Under— a straight set loss to James Duckworth last Tuesday and a close four-set win over world No. 106 Yasutaka Uchiyama on Sunday— this match is looking like complete toss-up. And according to the oddsmakers, that’s exactly what it is, with Kyrgios listed as a slight -115 favorite.

The Aussie dispatched Frederico Ferreira Silva, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4, on Sunday while earning himself a look at 17 break point opportunities. His serve was as good as advertised, hitting 14 aces and just one double-fault in his straightforward victory. Kyrgios will need every free point he can get Tuesday evening, as Humbert’s serve also went unbroken in the first round. To make matters more complicated, Kyrgios appears to be battling a left-knee injury.

“It’s f-ing sore,” Kyrgios told the trainer after losing the first set against Borna Coric. “I don’t know, I can’t serve without pain, it’s f-ing sore, I’ll probably just play one more game because I can’t land on my leg.”

Despite his visible pain and threat of withdrawal, Kyrgios went on to finish the match. “I've only played two matches. I haven’t played in a year, when I land it just feels unstable.”

Here, Kyrgios misses a routine backhand due to his inability to push off his left-knee.

But even with his injury, he was still able to pull off shots like this.

Given the circumstances— a rusty Humbert and a hobbled Kyrgios— this match has all the makings of a dramatic five-set match. However, knee pain does not simply go away, especially on a hard court, one of the worst athletic surfaces for joints and ligaments. Kyrgios is sure to have a few tricks up his sleeve, but in the end, expect Humbert’s superior fitness to propel him to his first third-round berth in Melbourne.

The Pick: Ugo Humbert