The Pick: Nick Kyrgios vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime

Kyrgios looks to keep his "no pressure" Wimbledon run going against Auger-Aliassime, who has been phenomenal on grass courts in his young career.

ByCale Hammond

Published Jul 02, 2021

MATCH POINT: N. Kyrgios def. G. Mager; Wimbledon 2R

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It takes a special player to spend six months Twitch-streaming Call of Duty and playing basketball with former NBA stars and still succeed at the most prestigious tennis tournament in the world. For all we know, that’s exactly what Nick Kyrgios did since the Australian Open.

Prior to Wimbledon, his last match was an epic five-set loss to Dominic Thiem in Melbourne, but for a player of unfathomable talent with a golden-right arm, some time away may have been just what the doctor ordered. So far in his SW19 campaign, Kyrgios has taken out a red-hot Ugo Humbert and defeated Gianluca Mager in straight sets with an incredible 48 to 11 winner-error ratio.

Kyrgios now finds himself in a very winnable spot against Felix Auger-Aliassime. The last time they met was on grass at the 2019 Queen’s Club Championships, where the Canadian triumphed 6-7 (4), 7-6 (3), 7-5. It was a memorable match for many reasons, but primarily because Kyrgios—who was forced to play a double-header due to rain delays—had little to no intention of actually winning the match.

Prior to the first ball, a crowd member yelled towards Kyrgios, “Let’s go Felix, you got this.” To which the Aussie responded, “He honestly probably does.”

🎾 Pre-match:
🙌 Crowd: Let's go Felix, you've got this"
😂 Nick Kyrgios: "He honestly probably does."

⏱️ Three sets and two hours later...
😯 The crowd and Kyrgios were right as Felix Auger-Aliassime knocks him out at Queen's!pic.twitter.com/Bizim14XaT
— Sporting Life (@SportingLife) June 20, 2019

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The match was there for Kyrgios’ taking, but tweener-volley after tweener-volley after tweener passing-shot, it was quite clear that Nick was not necessarily out there to win.

Some of them were spectacular.

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In the key moments, he once again let his passion for flair get in the way of winning tennis.

While some of them, like this double-tweener attempt at 5-6 deuce in the third set, were indefensibly stupid (assuming Kyrgios was trying to win the match).

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But at this year’s Wimbledon, it appears Kyrgios is, in fact, here to win. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Auger-Aliassime is listed as a slight -130 favorite and projected to win by 1.5 total games. Your guess is as good as mine as to who will emerge victorious, but according to UTR’s new insights tool, the Canadian owns a 59% win probability. Take that with a grain of salt, as Kyrgios data is notoriously unreliable due to his inconsistency in both effort and match play.

But this is also a good opportunity for FAA, as a loss to Kyrgios at Wimbledon wouldn't be surprising, given his supernatural serving and shotmaking ability. Safe money is without question on the over 41.5 game total, as a straight set victory in either direction seems doubtful. In a match that is sure to feature at least one tiebreak, four sets in either direction will get the job done.

Since grass-court tennis is far less physical than any other surface, there’s little reason for fatigue concerns for the Aussie. Auger-Aliassime will need to minimize his double faults and have a tremendous serving day, but the primary question remains, is Kyrgios there to entertain? Or is he there to win the match? With Kyrgios, there is no way of knowing. For prediction’s sake, we are going to side with the numbers and take Auger Aliassime, but the recommended bet is the over 41.5 game total.

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