The Pick: Novak Djokovic vs. Denis Shapovalov, ATP Cup Group A

At last year’s inaugural ATP Cup, Novak Djokovic clinched a semifinal berth with a thrilling 4-6, 6-1, 7-6 (4) victory over Denis Shapovalov. Thanks to an incredible week of tennis from Dusan Lajovic, who won four of his six singles matches, including a 6-4, 6-2 victory over Felix Auger-Aliassime, Djokovic played most of his singles matches from pole position.

But this year, Canada boasts an in-form and healthy Milos Raonic—who went 9-2 to finish the 2020 season—so Djokovic may not have the luxury of a one-point head start in his bid to remain perfect against Shapovalov (5-0).

As a -400 favorite on a hard court against Lajovic, one has to assume Raonic will secure the first point for Team Canada, which will put Shapovalov in a win-win situation. As a +400 underdog against perhaps the greatest player of all time, Shapovalov should feel less pressure knowing that if he loses, he can still propel his team to victory with a win in the deciding doubles tie.

To make matters worse for Team Serbia, Djokovic is dealing with a nasty blister on his right palm.

While the wound should have time to heal, the situation certainly doesn’t help the world No. 1, whose focus has to be more aimed at winning his ninth Australian Open, and closing the major title gap between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal.

Last year, Shapovalov found success in using his range and athleticism to finish points at the net.

His groundstrokes are beautiful and powerful, but not yet consistent enough to break down Djokovic’s game from the baseline. But then again, no one’s are. When given an opening, Shapovalov must find his way forward.

Last year, Shapovalov used his drop shot effectively, something he will need to do again in order to keep Djokovic off-balance.

Expect Djokovic, with his back likely against the wall, to come out firing. As always, Djokovic will sink his teeth into his return games, so his first-serve, first-ball combo will be imperative to keep Shapovalov out of his service games.

As tempting as it is to pick Shapovalov to pull off the upset here, you don’t win in tennis betting by picking against Djokovic in Australia. Last year, he reeled off 13 consecutive victories Down Under en route to the ATP Cup and Australian Open title. While I expect Djokovic to win this match, don’t be surprised to see Canada steal the doubles point and score a massive group upset over the defending champions.

The Pick: Novak Djokovic