The Pick: Novak Djokovic vs. Matteo Berrettini, Roland Garros quarterfinal

Whether it was on purpose we may never know, but Roger Federer did Novak Djokovic no favors by withdrawing from his fourth-round match against Matteo Berrittini. The ultra-fresh Italian will take on the world No. 1 on the heels of his five-set victory over Lorenzo Musetti, but with Djokovic, fatigue is hardly ever a factor.

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Djokovic is listed as a -455 favorite and projected to win by 6.5 total games. It’s a difficult line to bet either way, as you are essentially betting on whether or not Berrettini has a good serving day.

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Pauline Ballet & Getty Images

The two have faced off once before at the 2019 ATP World Tour Finals, with Djokovic demolishing the Italian 6-2, 6-1. It won’t be that lopsided on Wednesday, but Berrettini’s biggest strength—his serve—will be negated by Djokovic’s all-time great return.

While Djokovic looked vulnerable down two sets to Musetti, it’s worth noting that Djokovic often struggles when forced to create his own pace. That won’t be a problem on Wednesday, as Berrittini is one of the game’s hardest hitters.

If Djokovic can negate Berrittini’s serve, there’s not much the Italian can do.

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Perhaps Djokovic has an off day, but if he’s locked in, his game matches up perfectly against Berrettini, and he should cover his 6.5 game spread.

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