Once again, Novak Djokovic and Matteo Berrettini will face off in the late stages of a 2021 major. In both the Roland Garros quarterfinal and the Wimbledon final, the world No. 1 has survived the Italian in four sets. In Paris, Djokovic was a -455 favorite and projected to win by 5.5 games. In London, he was a -500 favorite projected to win by six games. They say good players win and great players cover, so naturally, the Serbian covered his spread on both occasions.
This time around, the oddsmakers are taking no chances. Djokovic is listed as a whopping -800 favorite and projected to win by seven total games. It would appear, at first glance, that there is some value on Berrettini to cover his seven-game spread. But when you dig a little deeper, it becomes clear that might not be the case.