The Pick: Ons Jabeur vs. Iga Swiatek, Wimbledon fourth round

It seems that after years of flashing her immense talent with no considerable results to show for it, Ons Jabeur is coming into her prime. The Tunisian, who captured her first WTA title two weeks ago in Birmingham, is the first Arab woman to reach the second week of Wimbledon—adding to her 2020 Australian Open quarterfinal run and consecutive fourth-round showings at Roland Garros. Match point up against 2017 Wimbledon champion Garbiñe Muguruza, Jabeur puked and rallied to capture the match, 5-7, 6-3, 6-2, setting up a meeting with Iga Swiatek for a spot in the quarterfinals.

Prior to the tournament, I predicted Swiatek would stumble at the All England Club—simply because no 20-year-old should get to be the best in the world on clay and also thrive on grass at such an age. But after the Pole’s 6-1, 6-0 demolition of Irina-Camelia Begu, it appears Swiatek is simply too talented to ever underestimate again.

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Swiatek is listed as a slight -139 favorite and projected to win by 1.5 total games. The data would agree, as UTR’s new insights tool has Swiatek as a 68 percent favorite to win.

Such a high-win probability would suggest Swiatek is a safe bet, but Jabeur has been the player of the tournament thus far. She’s tightened up her often erratic game with spectacular results, like this jaw-dropping around the net-post winner.

As well as this vintage Federer-esque drop-shot return winner.

At her best, Jabeur’s shotmaking is unmatched on the WTA tour. She will need to be careful on Monday though, because Swiatek is also one of the most skilled players in the game, and will be less bothered by Jabeur’s unpredictability than most competitors.

One has to wonder how Jabeur is holding up physically, but after two full days rest, she should be feeling fresh. In the end, expect Swiatek’s quickness to cause problems for Jabeur’s low-margin, extremely risky style. With a player who fluctuates as much as Jabeur does, definitely keep any bets on the smaller side, as Swiatek should have more than enough game to weather the inevitable storms and emerge victorious.

The Pick: Iga Swiatek