The Pick: Paula Badosa vs. Anett Kontaveit, WTA Ostrava second round

Paula Badosa may have been too competitive for her own good this summer. The Spaniard enjoyed a solid North American hardcourt swing, but injured her shoulder in the process, finally retiring down a set in the Cincinnati quarterfinal against Karolina Pliskova after battling through the pain all tournament. She never quite recovered, and fell to Varvara Gracheva in the US Open second round. It seems she has recovered well, as she defeated Gracheva on Monday 6-2, 6-2.

Meanwhile Anett Kontaveit has been playing some solid tennis as well, winning the Cleveland Championships prior to the US Open, where she fell in three sets to Iga Swiatek in the third round. Her 6-4, 6-4 win on Monday over Sorana Cirstea was clinical and efficient.

These two have never met before, but share a controlled yet aggressive brand of tennis. According the the oddsmakers, the Estonian is listed as a -138 favorite with an over/under game total of 21.5. UTR’s Insight tool lists the Spaniard as a 65 percent favorite to advance, but it appears the oddsmakers have factored in Badosa's nagging shoulder injury.

Kontaveit should have a slight edge on the quick indoor hard court in Ostrava, but Badosa has proven she is capable on all surfaces, not just clay. While it’s extremely tempting to take the Spaniard as an underdog, I will be playing it safe and placing a small wager on the over 21.5 game total, and hoping for a tight two-setter or three-set match.

The Pick: Over 21.5 games