The Pick, presented by DraftKings Sportsbook: Adrian Mannarino vs. Hubert Hurkacz, Paris Masters

With ATP Finals qualification possible, Hurkacz will be highly motivated, but the home crowd could give the southpaw enough of a boost.

ByZachary Cohen

Published Oct 31, 2022

MATCH POINT: H. Hurkacz def. F. Tiafoe; 1R Vienna

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On Tuesday, world No. 11 Hubert Hurkacz will continue his push for a spot in the ATP Finals when he takes on world No. 42 Adrian Mannarino in the first round of the Rolex Paris Masters. The big Pole is ninth in the Race for Turin, but he got a difficult opening-round draw. Mannarino might not be playing all that well at the moment, but the Frenchman plays an unusual game and will have plenty of crowd support. With that added adrenaline, we think the 34-year-old can put a scare into Hurkacz.

Mannarino enters this tournament on a three-match losing streak, but Hurkacz is just 3-3 in his last six matches. That’s not a great recent record for a player that is desperate to win matches. So, while Mannarino might be struggling to earn wins himself, it’s not like he’s playing somebody that is untouchable right now. Plus, the Frenchman beat Hurkacz in straight sets when the two met at this year's Australian Open, 6-4, 6-2, 6-3. That result should give Mannarino a whole lot of confidence entering this match, but it will ultimately come down to his serving.

Hurkacz is currently ninth in the ATP Race to Turin.

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Mannarino’s 80.2% hold percentage is the highest of his career; it's led to a 52.8% winning percentage—the second-highest mark of his career. He'll need to keep that up, as Hurkacz might not give Mannarino many opportunities to break. If he does, Mannarino can take advantage much like Borna Coric did against Hurkacz in Vienna.

This might not be a play that excites you very much, as it’s hard betting against one of the best players in the world, especially when that player has every reason to go out and win. But playing at home has raised the level of players a lot worse than Mannarino. And the best part about our pick is that the southpaw doesn’t even have to win the match. We’re simply backing him to force a deciding set, and we’re getting him at plus-money odds to do so. With that said, let’s start this tournament off with a banger.

The Pick: Mannarino To Win A Set (+115)

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