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On Monday, world No. 44 Ajla Tomljanovic and world No. 37 Alize Cornet meet in an unlikely fourth-round match-up at Wimbledon. Cornet shocked the world at the All England Club in her last match, as she defeated world No. 1 Iga Swiatek, 6-4, 6-2. It was one of the best wins of Cornet’s career, as the Frenchwoman snapped Swiatek’s 37-match winning streak. It is, however, going to be difficult for Cornet to go out and back that performance up, especially against a player of Tomljanovic’s caliber.

While earning a win like Cornet’s over Swiatek is incredible, it can sometimes be something of a curse. Cornet is now somebody that people are expecting to go far because of that upset, but it can be extremely hard to come down from the high of that type of win. That makes this match a prime let-down spot, and keep in mind that Cornet never been further than the fourth round at Wimbledon. The 32-year-old will also now be expected to continue winning on a surface that hasn’t done her much justice over the years, as Cornet has a losing record on grass in her career.

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Tomjlanovic, meanwhile, has had a fantastic run in London in her own right. The Australian has already knocked off world No. 22 Jil Teichmann and world No. 13 Barbora Krejcikova. And while the 29-year-old has a losing record on almost every surface, she doesn’t on grass. That could be one of the reasons that she defeated Cornet when these two played at Wimbledon in 2021, coming away a 6-4, 0-6, 6-3 victory. And despite the fact that it was a bit of a weird scoreline, both players will surely remember that result when they step on the grass just a year later.

Don’t be surprised if Tomjlanovic plays with a lot of confidence because of that last victory, and look for her backhand to be a big difference in this match. The Australian has one of the best backhands in the game, and that should ultimately give her an edge. She should get the better of Cornet in most backhand-to-backhand exchanges, and she’ll just need to do her best to make her opponent play some extra balls in this one. Cornet has never quite broken through at a major, and there will be some extra weight on her shoulders after her win over Swiatek. That could lead to some mistakes, and it’s another thing that makes us lean towards the Australian as an underdog.

The Pick: Tomljanovic To Win (+105)