The Pick, presented by DraftKings Sportsbook: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas, Monte Carlo

The final of the 2022 Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters will feature world No. 5 Stefanos Tsitsipas against world No. 46 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who is playing in the first ATP Masters 1000 final of his career. Those that have been following our selections this week have cashed in on the young Spaniard in back-to-back matches in Monaco, and we’re rolling with the 22-year-old once again in this one. However, this time we’re just taking Davidovich Fokina on the game spread.

This has been a rather remarkable week for both players, as they have each had to compete their tails off to get to this point. Davidovich Fokina went through world No. 1 Novak Djokovic and world No. 13 Taylor Fritz, while also beating David Goffin and, most recently, Grigor Dimitrov. Meanwhile, Tsitsipas started this tournament with wins over two clay-court specialists in Fabio Fognini and Laslo Djere, then dug deep to erase a 4-0 deficit in the third set against another dirt star, world No. 16 Diego Schwartzman. On top of all that, he straight-setted world No. 3 Alexander Zverev.

When Tsitsipas is on his game, there aren’t many players in the world that are capable of defeating him. But the 23-year-old has nevertheless had a bit of an up-and-down tournament. Obviously, the Greek superstar has found ways to survive and advance, but some small mental lapses have given his opponents opportunities to make matches competitive. None have taken advantage of it, but Davidovich Fokina is capable of doing so. The Spaniard is at his best on clay, and he has some surprisingly powerful ground strokes for a player of his size. He should be able to move Tsitsipas around quite a bit in this one.

These two have met twice in the past, with both matches ending up being competitive. The first meeting between these two actually came in this very tournament last year, when Davidovich Fokina had to retire after Tsitsipas won the first set, 7-5. Then, these two clashed in Rotterdam in February, when Tsitsipas earned a 7-5, 6-7 (1), 6-4 win over the Spaniard. There’s no denying that Tsitsipas is a better player than Davidovich Fokina, but there’s something to be said about those matches both being so tight. The Spaniard clearly isn’t intimidated by this match-up, and 4.5 games just seems like far too large of a spread given their history.

The crowd should also be behind Davidovich Fokina in this match. Fans love to root for an underdog, and ADF has proven to be a fan favorite ever since his Djokovic shocker. This has all the makings of a tight final, so you might as well take the underdog with the games.

The Pick: Davidovich Fokina +4.5 Games (-110)