In one of the most enticing Day 2 match-ups at the Australian Open, world No. 23 Nikoloz Basilashvili takes on Andy Murray for the second time in seven days. These two played one another in the round of 16 in Sydney, where Murray was nearly a -300 favorite and pulled out a 6-7 (4), 7-6 (3), 6-3 victory. However, the oddsmakers clearly have some doubt about whether he’ll repeat that feat, as Murray is now a much smaller favorite against Basilashvili in Melbourne. He’s now only a -190 favorite.

Normally, a win over the same opponent wouldn’t send your odds moving in the other direction. That odd line movement makes it seem like the sportsbooks are trying to bait you into taking Murray here. You’re not going to want to make that mistake.

For as well as Murray has played over the past two weeks, there are plenty of reasons to be concerned about how he might fare in this match. For starters, while Murray has worked himself back into solid form since hip replacement surgery nearly ended his career, the best-of-5 results just haven’t been there. We’ve seen the three-time major winner go the distance at Grand Slams since then, but he always seems to run out of steam. That was exactly what happened in his controversial 6-2, 6-7 (7), 6-3, 3-6, 4-6 loss to Stefanos Tsitsipas in the first round of the 2021 US Open (the bathroom match). And after playing five matches in Sydney last week, his legs could be a little heavy in Melbourne.

Another thing working against Murray in this match is the way Basilashvili plays. Clearly, the 29-year-old had his chances in his loss to Murray last week, and a lot of that has to do with the physical toll his style of play puts on his opponents. There might not be a single player on the ATP tour that generates as much power as Basilashvili on his forehand, and it all seemingly comes out of nowhere. The Georgian just has ridiculous arm speed and that allows him to whip winners when you least expect it.

“He’s hitting the ball consistently bigger than anyone on the tour, he was just taking huge cuts at everything,” Murray said after their encounter last week. “I was having to do a lot of defending, a lot of running.”

With Murray acknowledging himself just how difficult it is to play against Basilashvili, you start to see why the oddsmakers have some confidence in the world No. 23 to pull this one out.

For what it’s worth, Basilashvili is a player that can be somewhat hard to trust as a bettor. Like quite a few other players on tour, he runs a bit hot and can get in his own head—especially late in matches. Luckily, you don’t have to take him to win outright in order to come away from this match with a little extra money. Instead, you can back Basilashvili to simply keep it close. That’s the safest play in this one.

The Pick: Nikoloz Basilashvili +1.5 Sets (-130)